Advertisement
College Basketball Betting

Utah Valley vs. UAB prediction: how we’re betting this NIT matchup

Action Network
•
UAB guard Jordan Walker (10) tries to get past North Texas guard Kai Huntsberry, left, during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament in Frisco, Texas, Friday, March 10, 2023.

UAB guard Jordan Walker (10) tries to get past North Texas guard Kai Huntsberry, left, during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament in Frisco, Texas, Friday, March 10, 2023. (Michael Ainsworth/AP)

We’re off to the second game of the National Invitational Tournament (NIT) semifinals, so here’s our Utah Valley vs. UAB prediction.

Just one Quad 1 win before conference tournament play was never enough to get Utah Valley into the Big Dance.

As a result, the Wolverines’ only path to the NCAA Tournament was to secure an automatic bid by winning the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Tournament.

Utah Valley looked well on its way before blowing a 23-point lead in the WAC Tournament semifinal against Southern Utah.

If we turn to UAB, it got one step further than Utah Valley but lost in Conference USA’s postseason tournament to a Florida Atlantic team that just advanced to the Final Four.

While that loss was disappointing, I’ll share why the strength of the conference might’ve propelled UAB to this NIT run.

Utah Valley vs. UAB odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: UVU +2.5 (-105) vs. UAB -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline: UVU (+130) vs. UAB (-155)

Total: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)

Utah Valley vs. UAB pick

UAB -2.5

Utah Valley vs. UAB analysis

Heading into Selection Sunday, Bracketologist.com listed Conference USA as 10th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, averaging 144.36.

Smaller conferences are often disadvantaged if they lack sufficient opportunities to compete against Power Five teams during the regular season.

And because those games can be exiguous, mid-major teams can ill afford to squander those opportunities when presented.

This season, we saw more parity in college basketball than in the past, as coaches can almost overhaul their teams immediately by tapping into the transfer portal.

UAB is no different, given that it added adding seniors Ty and Ledarrius Brewer from East Tennessee State and sophomore guard Eric Gaines from LSU.

Gaines is the second-leading scorer with 11.6 points, while the Brewer brothers combine to add 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.

UAB still returned three starters and 53% of its minutes from the previous season.

It’s worth noting that it was coming off a 27-win season and a Conference USA Tournament championship that led to a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Unfortunately, UAB couldn’t get out of the first round after losing to the fifth-seeded Houston Cougars.

But if you look at the past two years, the Blazers won at least 27 games each season, and as UAB has improved, so has its conference.

This season, the top three teams in Conference USA are still involved in postseason tournaments.

While we know about Florida Atlantic in the NCAA Tournament, North Texas is also through to the semifinals in the NIT.

And on Wednesday last week, Charlotte won the CBI championship.

Considering how Conference USA teams have performed this postseason, you could easily argue that their teams haven’t been given enough credit.

Thus, from a power rating standpoint, I think UAB is a worthy favorite and agree with the line movement in their favor.

According to our Action Labs database, over the past four seasons, short favorites five or fewer points bet up are 91-71-3 for 56.2%.

After shopping around, I’ve found that BetMGM has the best price on the board at -2.5.