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Sports Betting

UAB vs. North Texas prediction: how we’re targeting NIT championship game total

Action Network
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UAB's Ty Brewer (15) reacts after making a 3-point shot against Utah Valley during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the NIT, Tuesday, March 28, 2023, in Las Vegas.

UAB's Ty Brewer (15) reacts after making a 3-point shot against Utah Valley during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the NIT, Tuesday, March 28, 2023, in Las Vegas. (John Locher/AP)

We’ve reached the final of the National Invitation Tournament (NIT), so here’s our UAB Blazers vs. North Texas Mean Green prediction.

Both teams narrowly escaped the semifinal round with victories by two-point margins.

And if that’s not eerily similar enough, our two finalists are Conference USA members. But wait, there’s still more that connects these two teams.

Not only did they play one another twice during the regular season, but they also faced off in the conference tournament. Thus, this will be the fourth meeting between the two teams during this campaign.

In this preview, we’ll dig deeper into the numbers and explain why the total might offer the best value on the board.

UAB vs. North Texas odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: UAB -1.5 (-115) vs. NT +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline: UAB (-130) vs. NT (+105)

Total: Over 127.5 (-115) | Under 127.5 (-105)

UAB vs. North Texas pick

Over 127.5 points

UAB vs. North Texas analysis

I’ve been impressed by the Mean Green this postseason after posting back-to-back Power Five victories over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin.

Nonetheless, bookmakers still chose to open North Texas as a 1.5-point underdog.

The market responded by siding against the Mean Green, as some sportsbooks have moved UAB up by half point despite North Texas winning two of the three meetings,

Yet, looking at the advanced metrics, such as Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency margin, North Texas ranks 33rd (+16.59) while UAB ranks 45th (+14.96).

When I run my model for this matchup, I have this number closer to a pick ’em in a tightly contested one-possession game.

Thus, this game is the epitome of a coin flip, and I think there are better options elsewhere.

What does offer some intrigue is the total when you consider the contrasting style of both teams.

Pomeroy has North Texas as the slowest team in the country, with an adjusted tempo of just 59.2 points per 100 possessions.

If we turn to UAB, it ranks 31st in pace with 70.6 points per 100 possessions.

When you look at their earlier meetings this season, the tempo was played more to UAB’s style, with two of the three games going over the total.

And while it’s clear that North Texas wants to play slower, the Mean Green matches up favorably against UAB’s perimeter defense.

According to TeamRankings, North Texas ranks 52nd in its percentage (35.7%) of scoring from 3-pointers.

UAB is a net negative on the perimeter, allowing 7.4 3-pointers per game while averaging 7.1 on offense.

And when you look at North Texas, it’s connecting on 7.7 3-point field goals per game.

I looked at our Action Labs database, and the total is 10-6 to the over in the NIT championship game with 127.5 points.

Moreover, this angle is currently on a 6-0 run.

With perimeter play likely a big part of this game, I think the over is well worth a look in this spot.