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Lightning vs. Bruins prediction: best bet for Saturday’s biggest NHL game

Action Network
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Boston Bruins defenseman Connor Clifton (75) during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Montreal Canadiens, Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Boston.

Boston Bruins defenseman Connor Clifton (75) during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Montreal Canadiens, Thursday, March 23, 2023, in Boston. (Steven Senne/AP)

We have a Lightning vs. Bruins prediction as two of the Eastern Conference’s best NHL teams meet up Saturday in Boston.

Unfortunately, that rings true for only one of these two teams currently. Tampa Bay has taken a nosedive recently, losing three straight by considerable margins.

The Bruins continue to roll, working on a five-game winning streak. They’ve outscored opponents 21-5 during the stretch.

While the obvious pick here is to bet on the streaking Bruins against the collapsing Lightning, I see another betting angle that might hold more value.

So, read on for the odds alongside my pick and prediction for Lightning vs. Bruins.

Lightning vs. Bruins odds

Moneyline: Lightning (+140) vs. Bruins (-170)

Spread: Lightning +1.5 (-172) vs. Bruins -1.5 (+142)

Total: Over 5.5 (-140) | Under 5.5 (+114)

Lightning vs. Bruins prediction

Over 5.5 (-140) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I don’t see value from a moneyline or puck-line perspective here. I want to buy low on the Lightning off three straight losses, but fading the Bruins at home at any number is too daunting.

Instead, let’s get to the bottom of Tampa Bay’s issues – defense.

Tampa Bay’s defensive core has collapsed during the late season. The Lightning have allowed 15 goals over the last three games, including a whopping seven in a loss to Ottawa on Thursday.

The season-long statistics don’t look pretty, either. The Lightning have allowed 228 goals this season and are 23rd in even-strength Expected Goals Allowed, per Money Puck.

Andrei Vasilevskiy isn’t even playing that poorly. The Lightning just cannot stop letting up high-danger shots, especially recently.

Expect the Bruins to take advantage. Behind David Pastrnak, the Bruins continue to score goals at a preposterous rate, and they could easily post another huge number Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Lightning’s offense should sneak a few goals into the net, even if Linus Ullmark is starting. Tampa Bay is still fourth in the NHL in Expected Goals For, per Money Puck, and that includes owning the second-best power-play unit, per Quant Hockey.

The Lightning offense has continued to roll even as its defense has fallen apart. They scored three goals on Ullmark earlier this year in Tampa Bay, so there’s no reason why the Lightning can’t score another three on Friday night.

Between Tampa’s offensive potential and Boston’s almost-certain offensive output, betting on the over is the best play for this matchup.

Sharp money has pushed the total higher and higher, but there’s still an over 5.5 (-140) available at FanDuel Sportsbook. I highly recommend making a wager there.