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Sports Betting

SDSU vs. FAU prediction: best bet for mid-major Final Four matchup

Action Network
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Florida Atlantic guard Brandon Weatherspoon (23) aims for a three pointer during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against UTEP, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in El Paso, Texas.

Florida Atlantic guard Brandon Weatherspoon (23) aims for a three pointer during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against UTEP, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in El Paso, Texas. (Andres Leighton/AP)

At the beginning of this college basketball season, 363 teams began their journey toward one ultimate goal: competing in the Final Four. And at the end of the long and arduous season, we are making a San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic prediction for the sport’s biggest event of the year.

College basketball, where the unexpected becomes the ordinary.

This game is compelling from a narrative perspective. However, it’s also a fascinating schematic matchup, especially between FAU’s four-out motion offense and San Diego State’s pack-line drop defense.

From a gambling perspective, there’s an obvious best bet to make.

SDSU vs. FAU odds

Moneyline: San Diego State -2.5 (-115) vs. Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-105)

Spread: San Diego State (-154) vs. Florida Atlantic (+128)

Total: Over 131.5 (-114) | Under 131.5 (-106)

SDSU vs. FAU prediction

Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Hypothetically, this matchup is favorable for San Diego State.

The Aztecs are elite defensively on the perimeter and at the rim, using Nathan Mensah’s drop defense to protect the latter and relentless ball pressure and highhanded closeouts to protect the former.

That should pose a problem for FAU, which has the 11th-highest rim-and-3 rate in the nation, per ShotQuality.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs live in the midrange on offense, using their superior guard and wing strength to sink high-paint and high-post shots. The Aztecs beat Creighton’s drop-coverage defensive scheme by shooting over the top of Ryan Kalkbrenner and should do the same to FAU’s drop-coverage scheme spearheaded by Vladislav Goldin.

These surface-level matchup issues explain the sharp money that San Diego State has taken throughout the week, with the Aztecs reaching -3 (-110) across the market at one point.

But the more I dig into this game, the more I realize that the Aztecs are in trouble.

SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher is an elite defensive game planner, and it’s part of the reason the Aztecs are in the Final Four.

However, the Owls are in the Final Four because of their depth, crisp ball movement and shooting. FAU carries seven guards and two big men, and all seven guards can facilitate the offense, run short-roll ball-screen sets and shoot the lights out.

And to beat the Aztecs, you need elite spacing, ball handling and shooting. The Owls have that in droves.

So, how does Dutcher game plan for seven different ballhandlers? Especially when those seven guys spearhead an offense designed to beat your defense.

Also, the Aztecs might be lucky to be here. Yes, San Diego State’s high hands and excellent closeouts make it tough to shoot the 3, but SDSU’s four tournament opponents have shot 17% from deep during this run.

No matter how good your defense is, you will never hold opponents to 17% shooting from 3 in the long run. Regression is coming, and the Owls could force that with a flurry of 3s in the Final Four.

I am worried about the Owls’ defense, as the Aztecs will have midrange success over FAU’s drop. However, I ultimately see FAU trading 2-point midrange shots on defense for catch-and-shoot 3-pointers on offense, a trade I would make as a three-point underdog.

Additionally, a big part of the Aztecs’ offense is turning defense into offense, turning turnovers into fast-break buckets. But the Owls do not turn the ball over and rank in the 95th percentile of D-I teams in transition points per possession allowed, per Synergy, taking away that angle.

And San Diego State runs a disorganized, inefficient offense outside of midrange and transition buckets. The Aztecs rely on a stifling defense to keep them in low-scoring games, but the offense is a mess overall.

Meanwhile, FAU is a more balanced team that can compete defensively despite being undersized. If you need evidence, look at how the Owls went punch-for-punch with Tennessee in a victory.

The Action Network’s PRO model projects this game as a pick ‘em, meaning there’s value in betting on the Owls as short underdogs. But considering the matchup factors, I’m willing to bet Florida Atlantic wins outright.

Either way, I’ll happily take the 2.5 points offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.