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Sports Betting

San Diego State vs. UConn prediction: top player prop to bet for NCAA Tournament title game

Action Network
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San Diego State guard Matt Bradley shoots over Florida Atlantic guard Johnell Davis during the second half of a Final Four college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, April 1, 2023, in Houston.

San Diego State guard Matt Bradley shoots over Florida Atlantic guard Johnell Davis during the second half of a Final Four college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, April 1, 2023, in Houston. (David J. Phillip/AP)

As we continue making San Diego State vs. UConn predictions in the national championship game, I looked at the player props market for the season’s biggest game.

Side note: Depending on state restrictions, fans may find no player props offered on their betting apps.

For the title game Monday night, I’m looking to fade the Aztecs’ best player following his best game of the tournament.

San Diego State vs. UConn best player prop bet

Matt Bradley under 12.5 points (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Matt Bradley is the epitome of streaky.

The Aztecs’ leading scorer and main ballhandler can score in bunches when he gets hot, as he did in the first half of the semifinal game against Florida Atlantic. Bradley scored 11 points in the game’s first 10 minutes and finished with 21.

However, he can also shoot the Aztecs out of games. San Diego State found other ways to win, but Bradley averaged 8.8 points per game on 31% shooting from the field and 10% shooting from 3 over his first four NCAA Tournament games.

Bradley shot a combined six-for-21 against Furman, Alabama and Creighton after going six-for-11 against Charleston in the Round of 64.

Again, Bradley is streaky.

So, after having his best game of the tournament on Saturday, I’m targeting Bradley for some game-to-game negative regression Monday night. Bradley should crash to Earth, and his points prop is likely a little inflated following the most recent performance.

Bradley also had an excellent matchup against Florida Atlantic, as he could bully the Owls’ very small perimeter guards off the dribble.

Meanwhile, Connecticut runs much bigger at the guard and wing positions, and every guy is a physical, plus-defender.

The Huskies also keep guys off the 3-point line, hurting Bradley’s pull-up ability.

Bradley also likely pulls Andre Jackson Jr. as a main defender, which is a brutal matchup for any offensive player. Jackson is one of the better on-ball perimeter defenders in college hoops and will provide plenty of resistance to Bradley’s driving attempts.

Not to mention that the Huskies’ defense has been otherworldly this playoff run. Miami’s guards spearheaded a perimeter offense that was more explosive than any other during this NCAA Tournament, and the Huskies held the ‘Canes to 59 points on .776 points per possession, per Synergy Sports.

How do you think Bradley will fare? Especially with how disorganized and inefficient the Aztecs’ offense is. San Diego State still ranks 68th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.

The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Bradley for 10.5 points Monday night, providing us with two points of edge against the 12.5 (-105) number available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Bradley’s streaky shooting and UConn’s elite perimeter defense should keep Bradley under this points prop.