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We’ve reached the final game of the college basketball season and have a San Diego State Aztecs vs. Connecticut Huskies national championship prediction.
The Aztecs earned their way into this game on a Lamont Butler buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic. It was a game in which San Diego State trailed by as many as 14 points roughly seven minutes into the second half.
As for Connecticut, it looked much more comfortable in its wire-to-wire 13-point victory over the Miami Hurricanes.
Bookmakers opened the Huskies as a 6.5-point favorite, but that number is now up to -7.5 at most sportsbooks. We’ll break down the critical angles of this game and advise where the value lies in this championship matchup.
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San Diego State vs. UConn odds
Odds provided by BetRivers
Spread SD ST. +7.5 (-108) vs. UCONN -7.5 (-112)
Moneyline: SD ST. (+310) vs. UCONN (-400)
Total: Over 132.5 (-110) | Under 132.5 (+109)
San Diego State vs. UConn pick
Two-leg 4.5-point teaser (+116): UConn -3 / over 128 points
San Diego State vs. UConn analysis
I’ve written the Aztecs off quite a few times during this NCAA Tournament, and quite frankly, I’m still scratching my head as to how they’re still standing.
I admittedly liked their chances when they faced the top-seeded Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16, given their opponent’s reliance on the 3-point shot.
That strategy played right in the hands of the Aztecs as Alabama continually hoisted 3-pointers even after struggling in the game. The Crimson Tide hit just three of the 27 shots they attempted.
San Diego State shot closer to its season average (6.6 per game) by connecting on six 3-point field goals.
In the Elite Eight, the Aztecs held their opponent to another poor performance from the perimeter, as Creighton managed just two 3-pointers in the game.
But their victory in the Final Four surprised me the most as the game seemed to suit the Florida Atlantic Owls, given the pace of play.
It was frantic up and down the court as both teams scored at least 70 points, snapping the Aztecs’ 12-game streak to the under.
Moreover, San Diego State uncharacteristically made nine 3-pointers and shot 50% from the perimeter.
Thus, given what we know about the Aztecs’ playing style, they’ve had some unlikely outcomes go in their favor.
In contrast, the Huskies have been the more dominant team every time they stepped on the court, as all five of Connecticut’s wins in this tournament have been by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 20.6 points.
That kind of dominance is something you certainly don’t see every day.
According to our Action Labs database, the Huskies have won 10 straight nonconference games dating back to the regular season.
The reality is that Connecticut’s been the most balanced team this season when you consider it the only team currently in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defensive efficiency metrics.
Yet, somehow I still find myself somewhat wary about this Aztecs team.
San Diego State’s biggest edge over Connecticut is its experience, as it ranks 21st in this category with an average of 2.96 years compared to 2.24 years for Connecticut.
While there’s no question that the Aztecs are a group of savvy veterans, I think Connecticut has enough grit in the right areas of the team to get the job done.
After running the numbers, my blended model aligns with the current spread at -7.5.
As a result, I plan to take advantage of a teaser by buying the number down 4.5 points to play Connecticut at -3 while pairing it with the over at 128 for +116 odds.