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College Basketball Betting

San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction: best bet for Sweet 16 matchup

Action Network
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San Diego State guard Matt Bradley (20) during the second half of a first-round college basketball game against Charleston in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 16, 2023, in Orlando, Fla.

San Diego State guard Matt Bradley (20) during the second half of a first-round college basketball game against Charleston in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 16, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP)

We have a San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction as the top overall-seeded Crimson Tide look to hold off the frisky, defense-first Aztecs.

Alabama had no problem getting here, thoroughly dominating Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Maryland en route to the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, the Aztecs struggled with Charleston, specifically in the first half, but eventually proved victorious. They then dominated Furman in the second round.

This game should devolve into a rock fight as two of the nation’s best defenses battle for their tournament lives.

Let’s dive into the odds alongside my prediction and pick for San Diego State vs. Alabama.

San Diego State vs. Alabama odds

Spread: San Diego State +7.5 (-110) vs. Alabama -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: San Diego State (+270) vs. Alabama (-345)

Total: Over 137 (-110) | Under 137 (-110)

San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction

San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Steve Fisher and Brian Dutcher built a powerhouse defensive scheme at San Diego State, primarily through dictating opposing shots. The Aztecs prevent quality attempts at the rim and from beyond the arc, funneling every offense into inefficient midrange 2s.

It feels like the Aztecs were built in a lab to stop Alabama. Nate Oats has fully bought into the analytics revolution, looking for shots at the rim or from beyond the arc. As a result, Alabama has the second-highest rim-and-3 rate in the nation, per ShotQuality.

San Diego State’s offense is not elite by any metric. However, the Aztecs can score when Matt Bradley, Lamont Butler and Keshad Johnson win isolation sets and make midrange shots.

While that’s an inefficient style of offense, it could work here. Outside of Brandon Miller, Noah Clowney and Noah Gurley, Alabama’s guards and wings will be at a size disadvantage staring down the Aztecs one-on-one.

While I believe in San Diego State’s mismatches, the spread result probably depends on which team establishes tempo. Alabama wants to run lightning fast, while San Diego State wants to grind out possessions in the midrange, and neither team is comfortable playing the other squad’s style.

However, the Aztecs are elite at keeping teams out of transition, allowing only 8.7 transition possessions per game, per Synergy. For context, that’s lower than 77% of D-I teams.

If Alabama can’t run the floor consistently, the Aztecs will keep this game in the half-court. That bodes poorly for Alabama, and a slower-paced game bodes well for a three-possession underdog.

Additionally, it’s always worth investing in Dutcher’s game planning. Per Stuckey of The Action Network, Dutcher is 42-26 against the spread when both teams have four or more days of rest, including 9-1 against the spread as an underdog.

Ultimately, while Alabama has the better roster from a talent standpoint, the Aztecs are not going to let the Tide take full advantage. Dutcher’s defense, game plan and bucket-getters will go punch-for-punch in the Sweet 16, and 7.5 points are far too many in this case.

So, I’ll bet on San Diego State +7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook. The Action Network’s PRO model projects SDSU as only a 5.5-point underdog, giving us solid value on the number.