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Sports Betting

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea odds, prediction: our best bet for Champions League clash

Action Network
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Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior celebrates with Dani Ceballos, left, after scoring his side's second goal during a Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and Villarreal at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Saturday, April 8, 2023.

Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior celebrates with Dani Ceballos, left, after scoring his side's second goal during a Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and Villarreal at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Saturday, April 8, 2023. (Jose Breton/AP)

Ahead of Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League rematch, we’re set to offer a Real Madrid vs. Chelsea prediction.

Madrid booked their spot in the quarterfinals thanks to a 6-2 drubbing of Liverpool in the round of 16, while Chelsea used a home win in the second leg to erase a 1-0 deficit against Borussia Dortmund.

Last season, these sides met on the way to Madrid’s win in the competition. Both legs proved very eventful, with Real eventually advancing 5-4 on aggregate.

Los Blancos are -140 favorites in Wednesday’s first leg with Chelsea sitting at +400 and the draw priced at +270. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -116 to the under.

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Prediction + Best Bet

Real Madrid Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-120), Bet to -130

Although it’s slightly worrisome Chelsea finally have both Reece James and N’Golo Kanté at full health, it’s difficult to see them stopping a potent Real Madrid attack.

Even when Chelsea played with those key pieces in their head-to-head meetings last year, Madrid’s offense ripped apart their defense. In the first leg at Stamford Bridge, the eventual UCL winners created 1.53 expected goals along with 1.13 expected goals on target (xGOT), per fotmob.com.

Then, albeit with most of it coming as a result of their eliminated advantage, manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side generated 1.58 xGOT in the first 90 minutes of the second leg in Madrid.

Plus, although Chelsea’s defense ranks miles ahead of Liverpool’s in terms of the underlying metrics — Liverpool are allowing 0.3 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes more in the English Premier League this season — it should be noted Real dominated that opponent.

We all remember the first leg at Anfield, which saw the visitors score five goals, albeit off only 2.83 xGOT.

But, it should be noted that in the second leg — when Madrid had nothing to play for — the UCL holders created 2.34 xGOT. Even if you adjust for the difference between Liverpool and Chelsea, that’s still a big number.

On the flip-side, Chelsea’s road defense this season is not on the level they would expect. This season, the Blues have allowed only two deserved road clean sheets based on xGOT in 15 road domestic fixtures. Of the remaining 13, opponents have created at least 1.3 xGOT in six.

Meanwhile, Madrid has shown an innate ability to create chances against top sides. In five combined La Liga and UCL home fixtures against RB Leipzig, Barcelona, Liverpool, Villarreal and Atletico Madrid, the Spanish giants have surpassed 1.5 goals three times.

Based on those factors, back the hosts to replicate their offensive success against Chelsea so long as the market remains available at -130 or better.