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College Basketball Betting

North Texas vs. Wisconsin prediction: how we’re betting this NIT semifinal matchup

Action Network
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Wisconsin forward Steven Crowl shoots against Bradley during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the first round of the NIT in Madison, Wis., Tuesday, March 14, 2023.

Wisconsin forward Steven Crowl shoots against Bradley during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the first round of the NIT in Madison, Wis., Tuesday, March 14, 2023. (SAMANTHA MADAR/AP)

We’re down to four teams in the National Invitational Tournament, so here’s our North Texas vs. Wisconsin prediction.

After picking up only one Quad 1 win during the regular season, North Texas’ only realistic route to make the NCAA Tournament was an automatic bid.

That didn’t happen, as the Mean Green ultimately lost to UAB in the Conference USA semifinals. But they’ve made the most of this season with a deep run in the NIT.

As for Wisconsin, a better showing in the Big Ten Tournament might’ve landed it in one of those “last four in” spots. However, the Badgers lost their first-round matchup against Ohio State.

But as long as these teams have games remaining on their schedule, they can still change the narrative of their season.

In this preview, I’ll share how subtle recent changes by both teams could lead to a higher-scoring game than the experts think.

North Texas vs. Wisconsin odds

Odds provided by FanDuel

Spread: NT -1.5 (-110) vs. WISC +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: NT (-130) vs. WISC (+108)

Total: Over 114.5 (-115) | Under 114.5 (-105)

North Texas vs. Wisconsin pick

Over 114.5 points or better

North Texas vs. Wisconsin analysis

When you find an angle, it’s important not to overthink things. That’s why I shut down my handicap after seeing an opening total of 115 points.

Yet, I can’t say I’m too surprised with this opening number.

After all, TeamRankings has North Texas as the slowest school in the country (363rd) with an average of 61.6 possessions. Wisconsin isn’t much better, ranking 343rd with 65.9 possessions per game.

However, we’ve seen both teams pick up the pace recently.

In the past three games for both teams, North Texas averaged 64.2 possessions, while Wisconsin went up to 66.9.

Both teams should be able to turn those possessions into extra points, given how they shoot from the perimeter.

Wisconsin ranks 101st with 7.9 3-pointers per game, while North Texas is 119th with an average of 7.7.

The Badgers’ shots tend to come off screens, as ShotQuality ranks them 16th (8%) in this category.

It should also help that they’re 50th in catch-and-shoot 3-pointers when considering how North Texas defends the perimeter.

Although opposing teams are averaging 5.0 3-pointers against North Texas, that number ticked up to 5.3 over its past three games.

While Wisconsin has primarily been a team that we associate with playing low-scoring games, even this total seems too aggressive.

According to our Action Labs database, in Wisconsin games with an opening total of 115 or fewer points, the over is 16-11 for 59.3%.

And if we look at the last 10 games in this spot, the over is 8-2 and currently on a 3-0 run.

If we expand our parameters to include all Division I schools, the over is 372-292-8 for 58.12 units.

Thus, enough data suggests that this total is well below the baseline of what we should expect in a college basketball game.