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Sports Betting

Newcastle United vs. Tottenham odds, predictions: our best bet for Sunday’s EPL fixture

Action Network
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Tottenham's Arnaut Danjuma, right, is congratulated by teammate Harry Kane after scoring his side's 2nd goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in London, England, Saturday, April 15, 2023.

Tottenham's Arnaut Danjuma, right, is congratulated by teammate Harry Kane after scoring his side's 2nd goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in London, England, Saturday, April 15, 2023. (Ian Walton/AP)

Before Sunday’s marquee English Premier League fixture kicks off, we’re set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Tottenham prediction.

The match carries heavy implications for the Champions League spots. Entering the match, Newcastle sit fourth on 56 points having played 30 matches, while Tottenham sit three points behind in fifth with an extra match in hand.

In the reverse fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Newcastle produced a 2-1 road victory, despite losing the expected goals battle.

At home, the Magpies are a -120 favorite on the three-way moneyline with Tottenham priced at +310 and the draw priced at +270. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -130 to the over.

Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Prediction

Newcastle United Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-120 | Bet to -130)

The Magpies failed to score in their last fixture at Aston Villa, but this represents a solid buy-low spot.

Prior to their offensive failure at Villa Park, manager Eddie Howe’s side cleared this benchmark in five straight games, including in matches against Manchester United and Brentford.

Now, Newcastle return home, where they can count themselves among the best offensive sides in the Premier League. Through 14 domestic fixtures at St. James’ Park, Newcastle is generating 2.02 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

It’s also not as if they’ve achieving that record wholly against the league’s worst sides. Through seven home games against the EPL’s top-10 defenses in non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes, Newcastle have cleared this total in four matches while creating 2.1 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.

Shrink the sample down to Newcastle’s home fixture against Manchester City, a side four spots ahead of Tottenham in terms of npxGA per 90 minutes, and bettors will find the Magpies created 1.8 expected goals.

On the flip-side, this is a Tottenham side that has struggled to defend away from home this season.

Through 15 road EPL fixtures, Spurs are allowing 1.37 expected goals per 90 minutes, again per fbref.com.

But, when you put Spurs up against a competent offensive side, the results are even worse. Through six road fixtures against Manchester City, Brentford, Manchester United, Brighton, Arsenal and West Ham, Spurs have allowed 1.68 expected goals per 90.

Further, in those six matches, Tottenham have allowed their opponent to clear this benchmark in four.

Given we’ve already seen Newcastle create 1.2 expected goals at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Spurs are 0.31 xG per 90 better defensively, bettors should expect a solid offensive showing for Newcastle as they attempt to tighten their grip on a UCL spot.

Back this team total market at -130 or better.