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Sports Betting

Newcastle United vs. Manchester United prediction: our best bet for Sunday’s EPL clash

Action Network
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Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, left, celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the Europa League round of 16 second leg soccer match between Real Betis and Manchester United at the Benito Villamarin stadium in Seville, Spain, Thursday, March 16, 2023.

Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, left, celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the Europa League round of 16 second leg soccer match between Real Betis and Manchester United at the Benito Villamarin stadium in Seville, Spain, Thursday, March 16, 2023. (Jose Breton/AP)

As Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture nears, we’re set to provide our Newcastle United vs. Manchester United prediction.

Both sides find themselves amid a race for the final two top-four spots. As it stands, Manchester United sits in third place on 50 points through 26 games while Newcastle ranks fifth on 47 points, also with 26 games played. Prior to the international break, Manchester United drew Southampton while Newcastle won against Wolves.

On Sunday, hosts Newcastle are a +145 home favorite with Manchester United priced at +185. The draw is +210 and the total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -125 to the over.

Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Prediction

Newcastle United Moneyline (+145)

Crucially, Manchester United enter this match without a crucial piece in Casemiro, who unquestionably is their most meaningful player.

According to fbref.com, the Red Devils see their expected goal differential drop by 0.9 xG per 90 when Casemiro is off the pitch. In their most recent road outing without the former Real Madrid player, United conceded 2.66 expected goals on target (xGOT) to Arsenal and ultimately lost the match.

Now, they travel to face a Newcastle side against whom United generated next to nothing — 0.16 xGOT, two shots on target — in the first meeting at Old Trafford.

Oh, and they’re going up against a side that brings one of the best home defenses in the Premier League to Sunday’s encounter. Entering this fixture, the Magpies have conceded only 0.79 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes at home this season.

While the results against the Big Six clubs are slightly concerning — 3.97 npxGOT against Manchester City, 1.48 npxGOT against Liverpool before their red card — this remains a United side that creates almost 0.5 npxGOT per 90 fewer away from home.

Dig deeper into the individual results and bettors will find manager Erik ten Hag’s side consistently runs hot-and-cold away from home. For example, they created 1.97 npxGOT against Leeds, a defense miles behind Newcastle, but generated only 0.66 npxGOT against Arsenal, a side equal to Newcastle in terms of home defensive record.

Regarding the Newcastle attack, they’ve actually slightly underperformed their home offensive metrics this season, scoring 19 non-penalty goals against 20.43 npxGOT, per fotmob.com.

While the schedule admittedly leaves something to be desired, manager Eddie Howe’s side has shown itself capable of creating high-quality chances against outstanding teams. In a home match against Manchester City, Newcastle generated 2.34 xGOT and bagged 1.71 xGOT against Chelsea.

For all those reasons, I’ll back the hosts on the three-way moneyline at +125 or better as they seek revenge for their defeat against United in the EFL Cup final.