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Sports Betting

Napoli vs. AC Milan odds, predictions: hosts undervalued Tuesday in Champions League?

Action Network
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Napoli's Victor Osimhen celebrates after scoring during the Serie A soccer match between Torino and Napoli at the Turin Olympic stadium, Italy, Sunday, March 19, 2023.

Napoli's Victor Osimhen celebrates after scoring during the Serie A soccer match between Torino and Napoli at the Turin Olympic stadium, Italy, Sunday, March 19, 2023. (Alberto Gandolfo/AP)

Ahead of Tuesday’s all-Italian UEFA Champions League clash, we’re set to provide a Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction.

The Rossoneri bring a 1-0 aggregate advantage to Naples following the first leg, the second straight victory for Milan over Napoli.

In good news for the hosts, they should see the return of talisman Victor Osimhen on Tuesday at home, where they’ve yet to drop points in the Champions League.

Napoli is a -135 favorite on Tuesday with Milan sitting at +410 and the draw priced at +260 on the three-way moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -126 to the under.

Napoli vs. AC Milan Prediction + Best Bet

Napoli Moneyline (-135 | Bet to -140)

Even though Napoli have lost two in a row against Milan, there’s more than meets the eye with that record.

In both matches, manager Luciano Spaletti’s side operated without Osimhen, which unsurprisingly led to a dip in offensive production. While a deserved 4-0 home drubbing in the match preceding the first leg is difficult to ignore, there are positive signs that should inform a Napoli victory in the second leg.

For example, Napoli finished the first leg as the unluckier of the two sides. Per fotmob.com, the visitors lost the match 1-0 but won on expected goals 1.34 to 1.13 and on expected goals on target (xGOT) 0.82 to 0.31.

Additionally, 0.25 of Milan’s xG tally came AFTER Napoli had a man sent off, which is quite concerning for the Rossoneri attack ahead of the second leg.

Put Milan away from home, and bettors will find they’ve largely struggled at top competition. In four trips to Inter, Lazio, Fiorentina and Atalanta, manager Stefano Pioli’s side holds a -1.91 npxGOT differential.

Of even bigger concern in that sample is that Milan’s attack generated next to nothing. Across those four fixtures, Milan created 0.65 npxGOT per 90 minutes and cleared 1.1 npxGOT only one time.

Now, they have to travel to face a Napoli side that has excelled at home this season. Through 15 home Serie A fixtures, the Gli Azzuri own a +0.75 non-penalty xGOT differential per 90 minutes.

Outside of that embarrassing loss to Milan, Napoli holds a +0.96 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes in four home matches against Juventus, Roma, Lazio and Atalanta, winning three of those matches.

Given Napoli will hold greater possession given the game state, that should lead to fewer opportunities for the Milan attack. Factor in the boost for Napoli’s offense — their xG differential rises by 0.53 per 90 with Osimhen on the pitch — expect the hosts to do enough to improve upon their first-leg performance.

Back the favorites on the moneyline up to -140.