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Sports Betting

Minnesota vs. Michigan prediction: College basketball odds, best bets for Thursday, Jan. 4

By D.J. James
Action Network
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Michigan forward Olivier Nkamhoua (13) plays against Indiana in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023.

Michigan forward Olivier Nkamhoua (13) plays against Indiana in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023. (Paul Sancya/AP)

While the Michigan football team is one win away from a nation title, the basketball team is currently struggling.

The Wolverines are ranked 59th overall, per KenPom, but have lost consecutive games to Florida and McNeese State. They are 6-7 overall (with a home loss to Long Beach State!) have split their two Big Ten games against Indiana (L) and Iowa (W).

While no one was expecting this team to win the national title, it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the Wolverines, who face Minnesota in Big Ten play Thursday night at home.

The Gophers (10-3, 1-1) enter the contest untested. According to the latest KenPom rankings, Minnesota has beaten just one top-225 team (Nebraska).

We’ll learn a lot more about these two teams tonight.

Minnesota vs. Michigan Odds (via Caesars)

  • Spread: Minnesota +6.5 (-110) vs. Michigan -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Minnesota +228 vs. Michigan -285
  • Total: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)

Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction: Analysis

While Minnesota’s adjusted defensive ranking (98th) isn’t anything to write home about, it’s much better than Michigan’s 140th ranking. The problem for the Gophers is that they don’t force many turnovers. That could be problematic for a Michigan offense that commits a ton of turnovers, and is probably an equalizer.

The Gophers’ defensive strength is guarding the perimeter, allowing just a 29.5% 3-point attempt rate (17th) and 33% overall. Michigan shoots from beyond the arc at a rate of more than 40% with a success rate of over 38%.

While the Wolverines defense has been downright bad, they do rank an impressive 22nd in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

Minnesota vs. Michigan Pick

Armed with a better offense, home-court advantage and a strategic edge against Minnesota’s defense, emerges as the favorable pick. The Gophers’ vulnerabilities, particularly in defending against proficient 3-point shooters, align well with Michigan’s strengths.

Then there’s this: Michigan’s strength of schedule ranks 22nd; Minnesota is 358th.

Pick: Michigan -6.5 (-110 at Caesars)