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Sports Betting

Miami vs. UConn prediction: best total bet among Final Four matchups

Action Network
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Miami forward Norchad Omier (15) is tied up on a layup attempt by Florida State center Naheem McLeod, left, and Florida State guard Matthew Cleveland (35) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Tallahassee, Fla., Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2023.

Miami forward Norchad Omier (15) is tied up on a layup attempt by Florida State center Naheem McLeod, left, and Florida State guard Matthew Cleveland (35) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Tallahassee, Fla., Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2023. (Phil Sears/AP)

Before the Final Four, I went down a rabbit hole hunting for my favorite first-half or full-game total for Saturday’s two semifinal games. As a result, I have a Miami vs. UConn prediction to share.

UConn and Miami are two high-powered offenses, and the two can create mismatches against the opposing defense.

However, I’m taking a contrarian angle on this very public total.

Miami vs. UConn total odds

Full-game total: over 149.5 (-110) | under 149.5 (-110)

First-half total: over 70.5 (-110) | under 70.5 (-110)

Miami vs. UConn total prediction

Under 149.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Again, the Hurricanes and Huskies are top-tier offensive teams. So, everyone and their mother is taking the over in the nighttime Final Four matchup.

Per The Action Network, over 75% of the over/under tickets and over 85% of the over/under the handle are on the over.

But while I love watching Miami and UConn play offense, the under 149.5 (-110) is a smart play here.

First, because I’m always looking to fade the public.

All the public action is on the over, but the total has actually moved down at some sportsbooks. We characterize this as reverse line movement, a contrarian and profitable bet signal.

Second, because the total is simply set way too high.

ShotQualityBets’ model projects the total at 138.5, giving us 11 points of value over the best available lines.

But the biggest reason I’m on the under is location. The Hurricanes and Huskies are playing on a neutral court in a football stadium (NRG Stadium in Houston).

Playing in a huge stadium like that will have an impact. It’s hard to gauge exactly, but shooters can be troubled by depth perception issues in a much larger arena, or players could start the game tight in front of 70,000 screaming fans.

However, we can gauge neutral-court impact. Per Bet Labs, neutral-court unders in semifinal or championship games cash at a 56% clip.

While Hurricanes vs. Huskies has the makings of an all-time Final Four matchup, I doubt the two teams combine to hit 150 points, especially considering the situation, location and historical trends.

Meanwhile, the sportsbooks are begging people to bet on the over, which should tell you something about the sharper side of this line.

I’ll be on the under 149.5 (-110) available at Caesars Sportsbook, searching for an ugly start to an eventually entertaining game.