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College Basketball Betting

Miami vs. UConn predictions: early line moves and bets for Final Four matchup

Action Network
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UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. shoots in the first half of an Elite 8 college basketball game against Gonzaga in the West Region final of the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 25, 2023, in Las Vegas.

UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. shoots in the first half of an Elite 8 college basketball game against Gonzaga in the West Region final of the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 25, 2023, in Las Vegas. (John Locher/AP)

Making Miami vs. UConn predictions should be your most important job this week. While the mid-major Final Four matchup between FAU and SDSU will be wildly entertaining, Hurricanes vs. Huskies is the crown jewel of the Final Four games.

The Hurricanes just punched their ticket Sunday, and I’m here to analyze the early Miami vs. UConn betting market movement and provide my best early-week betting prediction.

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Miami vs. UConn odds

Spread: Miami +5.5 (-110) vs. UConn -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Miami (+196) vs. UConn (-240)

Total: Over 149 (-110) | Under 149 (-110)

Miami vs. UConn betting market

After dismantling Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, the Huskies immediately took public and sharp action in the betting markets. UConn opened as five-point favorites, but the line has moved to UConn -5.5 across the market.

At the time of writing and per The Action Network, over 70% of the tickets and handle are on UConn. There is little confidence for Miami in the Final Four.

Meanwhile, there’s also little confidence in a low-scoring affair. At the time of writing and per The Action Network, over 75% of the tickets and 90% of the handle are on the over.

It’s worth mentioning that betting on neutral-court unders is a long-term winning strategy. Per Bet Labs, betting on neutral-court unders has produced a 1.4% ROI since 2005.

Miami vs. UConn early prediction

UConn Huskies -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

I’m a total believer in the Huskies. UConn is playing its best basketball at the right time, destroying Iona, Saint Mary’s, Arkansas and Gonzaga on its way to the Final Four.

We might have underrated the Big East all season. UConn struggled through conference play, but the Huskies have thoroughly dominated every nonconference opponent, going 15-0 straight up and 14-1 against the spread in those games.

I expect the trend to continue in the Final Four, with the Huskies rolling to the championship game.

Miami will have its advantages. The Hurricanes’ quick-twitch guards can beat UConn’s isolation defenders off the dribble, and Norchad Omier is laterally quicker than Adama Sanogo.

But the Hurricanes’ issue is on defense. Miami is a horrific post-up and perimeter defense, ranking in the fifth percentile of D-I teams in post-up points per possession allowed (1.00), the fourth percentile in cutting points per possession allowed (1.327) and the 16th percentile in spot-up points per possession allowed (. 979), per Synergy.

Sanogo will dominate in the low post, and Miami will be forced to double-team him, where he’ll hit cutters and spot-up shooters on the perimeter. It’s worth mentioning that UConn has several elite perimeter scorers, highlighted by Tristen Newton and Jordan Hawkins.

It’s also tough to combat Connecticut’s offense generally, as Huskies coach Dan Hurley runs a deep interior scoring playbook. Miami already has glaring defensive holes, which I expect UConn to exploit easily.

Many thought Gonzaga’s high-octane offense and questionable defense could keep up with UConn’s balanced team, but Zags’ bettors were quickly proved wrong. I’m betting we’ll see the same result on Saturday in a convincing UConn victory.