Advertisement
Sports Betting

Miami vs. UConn prediction: best bet for marquee Final Four matchup

Action Network
•
UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. dunks in the first half of an Elite 8 college basketball game against Gonzaga in the West Region final of the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 25, 2023, in Las Vegas.

UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. dunks in the first half of an Elite 8 college basketball game against Gonzaga in the West Region final of the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 25, 2023, in Las Vegas. (John Locher/AP)

Two of college basketball’s most interesting coaching personalities meet in the Final Four’s marquee matchup, and as a result, we have a Miami vs. UConn prediction.

Jim Larranaga is back for his second Final Four after dragging George Mason to the semifinals in 2006. He’s turned Miami into a tournament team.

Meanwhile, Dan Hurley is culminating a 30-year basketball journey by taking UConn to the Final Four while finally living up to high expectations. Connecticut basketball is back in its sixth Final Four since 1999, but the first since 2014.

From an on-court perspective, this game has the makings of an all-time college basketball game. The Huskies are an elite two-way basketball team, but the ‘Canes have athleticism and scoring in droves.

That said, I’m unsure if the Hurricanes have the two-way play to keep up with UConn.

Miami vs. UConn odds

Moneyline: Miami +5 (-110) vs. UConn -5 (-110)

Spread: Miami (+192) vs. UConn (-235)

Total: Over 149 (-110) | Under 149 (-110)

Miami vs. UConn prediction

UConn Huskies -5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Everything Miami does is quick-twitch. The team is based on athleticism, versatility and being faster than its opponent.

Nobody has stopped the Hurricanes’ offense. The ‘Canes mostly run simple ball-screen action, but all five guys are too explosive in their roles, so they’ve shredded any ball-screen coverage scheme thrown at them.

Isaiah Wong’s shot creation and dribble are unbelievable. Nijel Pack’s spacing and shot-making are crazy. Jordan Miller’s off-ball movement is impeccable. Norchad Omier is the most athletic big man I’ve seen this season.

The Hurricanes can outrun and outgun anyone in their path, and it’s been fun to watch.

That said, Miami’s roster is small. So, the Hurricanes try to negate that with relentless ball pressure defense, often blitzing ball screens while flying around the court looking for turnovers. This also helps create turnovers and turn defense into transition offense (where the uber-athletic ‘Canes can thrive).

However, the perimeter-oriented defense also leaves the Hurricanes wide open to backdoor cuts behind the ball pressure, and they’re useless at defending opposing post-up sets.

Unfortunately for Miami, UConn is built to exploit the Hurricanes’ two biggest defensive weaknesses.

UConn’s offense thrives on off-ball screening, cutting and movement, usually to pop open Jordan Hawkins, Tristen Newton or Alex Karaban for 3. The Huskies are ninth nationally in off-screen points per game and rank above average in cutting points per possession, per Synergy Sports.

And if UConn fails to generate offense through its usual off-ball paths, it has the best fail-safe option in college hoops. When the Huskies fail, they look toward Adama Sanogo on the low block, where he ranks in the 84th percentile of D-I players in post-up points per possession this year (1.018).

If any team can exploit Miami’s interior vulnerabilities, it’s UConn.

I have doubts about UConn’s ability to stop Miami, mainly because nobody can stop Miami. However, the Huskies are the best two-way team left in the tournament.

Since Feb. 1, the Huskies rank first in adjusted efficiency, including second on offense and sixth on defense, per Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, the Huskies have not lost a nonconference game this season, struggling mostly against the uber-talented Big East.

They’ve been playing the best basketball in the country for weeks, and there’s no team I’d rather be laying points with right now.

For this matchup, the Huskies have two avenues to containing Miami.

First, UConn’s rock-solid transition defense should help control the pace. UConn ranks 23rd nationally in transition points per possession allowed, per ShotQuality.

Second, the Huskies need to utilize Andre Jackson. He’s one of the Big East’s best on-ball defenders, and he could be a difference-maker covering Wong, Pack or Miller.

Jackson is also an elite cutter on offense, which is big against Miami. He could have a big day.

Either way, the Huskies should generate more stops than the Hurricanes.

This will be a high-scoring, high-flying, electric Final Four game, but the Huskies will score at will while containing Miami. Ultimately, UConn’s elite overall play will be the difference maker in a two-possession victory.

I am worried about Hawkins’ status, as he reportedly has a non-COVID illness. However, I expect him to play, and his absence isn’t enough to suck the value out of UConn -5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.