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Sports Betting

Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction: how we’re betting Wednesday’s Premier League fixture

Action Network
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Brentford's Ivan Toney celebrates scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, at The AMEX Stadium in Brighton, England, Saturday April 1, 2023.

Brentford's Ivan Toney celebrates scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, at The AMEX Stadium in Brighton, England, Saturday April 1, 2023. (Kieran Cleeves/AP)

Before Wednesday’s English Premier League fixture at Old Trafford, we’re set to share our Manchester United vs. Brentford prediction.

Both sides enter the match having dropped points over the weekend. A late penalty cost Brentford a road win against Brighton while United dropped all three points in a 2-0 road defeat to Newcastle United.

That leaves United on 50 points through 27 matches, good for fifth, while Brentford sit seventh on 43 points through 28 fixtures.

The Red Devils are a -160 favorite with Brentford sitting at +380 and the draw at +320. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -145 to the over.

Manchester United vs. Brentford Prediction

Both Teams to Score - “Yes” (-135)

This is a shockingly low number given one key absence for Manchester United: Casemiro.

Most would argue the defensive midfielder is United’s most important player and signifies the key cog in their defensive machine. Per fbref.com, United sees their expected goal differential drop by 0.85 when the Brazilian is off the field.

Additionally, if you look at the fixtures Casemiro has missed for manager Erik ten Hag, the defensive results are quite concerning. In those eight matches, United is allowing 1.68 expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes and has kept a deserved clean sheet only once.

Although the level of competition in those contest has proved relatively difficult -- Brighton, Brentford, Liverpool, Arsenal, Leeds United twice, Leicester City and Newcastle -- the fact remains this is a drastically different defense than the one with Casemiro on the pitch.

Plus, we saw Brentford create 2.3 xGOT in the first meeting, albeit at home, so who’s to say they can’t score at least once again here. In fact, I would say I’m almost more confident the Bees bag at least a goal, leaving United to cash the second leg of this ticket.

But, I rate this a great buy-low spot on a United team that generated only 0.09 xGOT against Newcastle, one of the better home defenses in the league. At home, they’re a much-improved attack that should do no worse than a goal.

Through 13 matches at Old Trafford, opponents have held United goalless only twice. One of those occasions came against Newcastle while the second came against Southampton, who played up a man for an hour and change.

Brentford is allowing 1.43 non-penalty xGOT per 90 away from home, including 1.6 in three road fixtures against Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle United.

Plus, across all 14 road matches, manager Thomas Frank’s side has kept a deserved clean sheet in only three matches, at Bournemouth, West Ham and Southampton.

Suffice it to say none of those offenses are on the level of Manchester United, so we’ll back this prop at -155 or better.