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Sports Betting

Manchester City vs. West Ham prediction, odds: how we’re betting Wednesday’s Premier League fixture

Action Network
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West Ham's Declan Rice walks on the pitch as soap balloons fly around during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Liverpool at the London stadium in London, Wednesday, April 26, 2023.

West Ham's Declan Rice walks on the pitch as soap balloons fly around during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Liverpool at the London stadium in London, Wednesday, April 26, 2023. (Alastair Grant/AP)

Ahead of Wednesday’s Premier League fixture at the Etihad Stadium, we’re prepared to share our Manchester City vs. West Ham prediction.

Following Arsenal’s win on Tuesday against Chelsea, City once again find themselves two points behind for the league title. However, that comes despite having played two fewer games.

As for West Ham United, they’re still hoping to avoid a bad run of form that would see the Hammers relegated. Entering Wednesday’s fixture, the Hammers have 34 points, four points clear of 18th with one fewer game played.

City are a -500 favorite for Wednesday’s match with West Ham priced at +1150 on the moneyline. The draw is priced at +600 and the total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -135 to the under.

Manchester City vs. West Ham United Prediction & Best Bet

Manchester City Win to Nil (Lean at +100 | Bet at +105 or better)

A very tricky game to handicap, but City should cruise relatively easily.

Exactly zero teams have held manager Pep Guardiola’s side goalless at home this season, so essentially what this comes down to is the West Ham attack.

Supporting the claim they won’t do well is both City’s defensive form at home as well as West Ham’s record against good teams away from home.

Regarding the former, City actually enter Wednesday’s match a positive defensive regression candidate. Through 32 Premier League fixtures, the reigning champions have conceded 30 goals against only 25.2 expected, according to fbref.com.

At home, Guardiola’s defense has allowed teams to score 16 goals vs. only 10.9 expected, the best home xGA mark in the Premier League.

If there’s one element of concern, it’s that West Ham enter this match a positive offensive regression candidate. The Hammers have scored only 37 goals off 43.7 expected, including 15 goals for off 19.8 expected away from the London Stadium, per fbref.com.

But, are we certain that regression comes against the best defense in the league? I’m not so certain.

In trips to Newcastle United and Arsenal — sides comparable to Manchester City in defensive quality — West Ham scored both times but generated only 0.6 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.

Expand the sample to include road trips to Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester United — fifth and third, respectively, in home xGA — and bettors will find the Hammers are creating only 0.65 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.

Further, in the reverse fixture against Manchester City at home, West Ham generated only 0.5 expected goals.

Thus, back this market if it reaches +105 or better as long as City don’t tinker with their lineup.