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Soccer Betting

Manchester City vs. Liverpool prediction: hosts undervalued in Saturday’s EPL clash?

Action Network
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Liverpool's Mohamed Salah during the Champions League, round of 16, second leg soccer match between Real Madrid and Liverpool at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Spain, Wednesday, March 15, 2023.

Liverpool's Mohamed Salah during the Champions League, round of 16, second leg soccer match between Real Madrid and Liverpool at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Spain, Wednesday, March 15, 2023. (Manu Fernandez/AP)

It’s a Premier League fixture with both title race and top-four implications as we get set to provide a Manchester City vs. Liverpool prediction.

For City, they sit eight points behind Arsenal, but with a game in hand. Entering this fixture, the hosts have won six straight in all competitions.

Regarding Liverpool, they’ve dropped two straight in all competitions, but are 4-1-1 (W-L-D) in their past six EPL fixtures to sit seven points out of the Champions League spots with two games in hand.

On Saturday, City are a -165 favorite with Liverpool priced at +425. The draw is +310 and the total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -165 to the over.

Manchester City vs. Liverpool Prediction

Manchester City Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+170)

This is equal parts a play on the Manchester City attack as it is a fade of Liverpool’s road defense, which has looked questionable for the season.

Prior to playing the best home attack in the Premier League, Liverpool have allowed opponents to create 1.62 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com.

Additionally, the Reds are allowing 4.92 shots on target per 90 minutes away from home for a 0.33 xGOT rating per shot on target, the worst mark in the Premier League.

Of even greater concern is what happens when manager Jurgen Klopp’s side travels to face a fellow Big Six club. Through three road fixtures against Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham, Liverpool are allowing 2.41 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

Plus, Liverpool enter this game a negative regression candidate both for the season and away from home. As it stands, the 2022 UCL finalists have conceded 27 non-penalty goals against 34.04 npxGOT this season, including 18 on 21.01 npxGOT away from home.

What better place to target that regression against a City offense that performs exponentially better at home and has bossed fellow Big Six opponents? This season, manager Pep Guardiola’s side is creating 1.95 npxGOT at home, which is 0.4 npxGOT better than their road average.

However, if you remove a home match against Fulham in which City played down a man for 60 minutes and change, the average jumps to 2.04 npxGOT per 90.

But, if you look at home games against Manchester United and Tottenham, bettors will find City created 2.77 npxGOT per 90 minutes and surpassed this benchmark in both games.

Finally, in an earlier EFL Cup meeting at the Etihad this season, City created 2.5 xGOT and overtook this total.

Based on those factors, back this market at +150 or better on Saturday.