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Sports Betting

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich odds, prediction: how we’ll bet this Champions League clash

Action Network
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Bayern's Dayot Upamecano, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring the opening goal during Germany Cup quarter final match between Bayern Munich and SC Freiburg at the Allianz Arena stadium in Munich, Germany, Tuesday, April 4, 2023.

Bayern's Dayot Upamecano, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring the opening goal during Germany Cup quarter final match between Bayern Munich and SC Freiburg at the Allianz Arena stadium in Munich, Germany, Tuesday, April 4, 2023. (Matthias Schrader/AP)

Ahead of Tuesday’s marquee UEFA Champions League clash (nationally televised on CBS), it’s time to outline a Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich prediction.

Draw luck benefited neither of these sides, who are currently the first and second favorites to win Europe’s top competition.

To reach the quarterfinals, City dispatched fellow German side Red Bull Leipzig while Bayern Munich took care of Paris Saint-Germain.

On Tuesday, City are a -135 favorite on the three-way moneyline with Bayern priced at +333 and the draw +300. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -165 to the over.

In the “to advance” market, City are a -190 favorite before the first leg.

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich Prediction

Manchester City Moneyline (-135)

Spare me the “Thomas Tuchel owns Pep Guardiola” rhetoric ahead of this first leg — bettors should expect City to cruise at home.

In a league two steps above the Bundesliga in terms of UEFA coefficients, Manchester City has looked virtually invincible at the Etihad Stadium.

Through 14 Premier League fixtures at the Etihad, Guardiola’s Manchester City side has posted a +1.51 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) differential per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com.

Add in Champions League fixtures against Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig and that figure rises to a +1.77 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes.

But, the even more impressive element with City’s home record is their statistical record against top-tier competition.

In the two aforementioned Champions League fixtures and four home EPL fixtures against Manchester United, Tottenham, Newcastle United and Liverpool, City owns a +2.4 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes and is a perfect 6-0-0 straight up in those games.

Bayern has proved a strong road side in the Bundesliga as a whole, posting a +0.72 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes. But under former manager Julian Nagelsmann, they’ve struggled against top-tier sides.

In two domestic trips to Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig — the closest comparisons to this City juggernaut — Bayern owns a -0.57 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes and a -2 shots on target differential per 90 minutes.

The German giants also allowed those sides to create higher-quality chances. In those two matches, Bayern conceded a 0.33 npxGOT rating per shot on target, up from a road average of 0.27 npxGOT per shot on target away from home.

That will likely spell trouble against a City offense that’s unquestionably better at home. Domestically, Guardiola’s side averages 2.08 npxGOT per 90 and 0.34 npxGOT per shot on target at the Etihad, which is up from 1.57 npxGOT per 90 and 0.3 npxGOT per shot on target away from home.

For those reasons, take the hosts to claim the first leg so long as they remain available at -150 or better.