Advertisement
Sports Betting

Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds, prediction: our best bet for EPL showdown

Action Network
•
Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta gestures during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Arsenal at the London stadium in London, Sunday, April 16, 2023.

Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta gestures during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Arsenal at the London stadium in London, Sunday, April 16, 2023. (Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP)

The marquee Premier League match of the season has arrived as we’re set to provide a Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction.

League-leading Arsenal sit five points clear of their title challengers, but Manchester City have two games in hand. Should City claim all three points against Arsenal and their two games in hand, they’ll take the lead for the title.

In the Premier League, City has claimed all three points in six straight contests. Meanwhile, Arsenal have dropped points in three straight contests.

On Wednesday, City is a -185 home favorite with Arsenal sitting at +450 on the three-way moneyline with the draw priced at +340. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -185 to the over.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal Prediction

Same-Game Parlay: Manchester City Moneyline + Total Over 1.5 Goals (-135 | Bet to -150)

Don’t fall into the “Arsenal as a trendy road underdog” trap; this team is spiraling and has no chance of competing with City.

Over their past three matches, at West Ham, at Liverpool and vs. Southampton, the Gunners own a +0.5 non-penalty expected goal differential. In the game at Liverpool, the closest comparison to this City side, Arsenal drew the match but lost 3.2 to 1.4 on non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.

Arsenal enter this match a prime negative regression candidate away from home against a City side that has dominated at the Etihad. Through 16 domestic trips, manager Mikel Arteta’s side owns a +19 goal differential compared with a +8.3 expected goal differential, the third-best mark in the Premier League.

As for City, they own the best home expected goal differential in the Premier League at +23.8, good for a +1.58 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.

What’s even more impressive about this Erling Haaland-led side is their home record against the league’s best sides. In five home contests against Manchester United, Brighton, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle United, City holds a +8 non-penalty expected goal differential, or a +1.6 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.

Of those five sides, exactly zero have held the reigning champions under 1.5 total team goals, let alone for the match.

City also dominated the reverse fixture at the Emirates, creating 1.8 non-penalty expected goals to Arsenal’s 0.85, per fotmob.com.

Given City create 0.33 xG per 90 more at home, bettors should expect a dominant performance from the City attack against an Arsenal defense primed for negative road regression — 13 road goals against vs. 18.4 road xGA, per fbref.com.

Back this same-game parlay up to -150, or opt for City -1 for the game at -125 or better.