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Sports Betting

2023 Kentucky Derby picks & predictions: Win bet, longshots to use in exacta & trifectas

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Trainer Todd Pletcher watches a workout at Churchill Downs Tuesday, May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 6.

Trainer Todd Pletcher watches a workout at Churchill Downs Tuesday, May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 6. (Charlie Riedel/AP)

Fans of horse racing — and millions of casual observers — are ready to tune in for Saturday’s 149th Kentucky Derby and we have Kentucky Derby predictions.

After the scratch of morning-line favorite Forte, trainer Todd Pletcher now has two strong contenders, the Blue Grass Stakes champ Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, but we’ll take a shot with a relative unknown sure to produce a nice price.

Odds are updated through Friday morning and obviously will change during the hours leading to Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. ET post time.

Kentucky Derby top five contenders

Tapit Trice 6-1

Angel of Empire 6-1

Two Phil’s 8-1

Derma Sotogake 8-1

Kingsbarns 12-1

Kentucky Derby prediction

Bet 1: Derma Sotogake-Tapit Trice-Confidence Game exacta box

Bet 2: Derma Sotogake to win.

Kentucky Derby analysis

The Japanese intruder, Derma Sotogake, might be as good or better than any of these rivals on Saturday at Churchill Downs, coming off a strong victory in the UAE Derby — a performance that hasn’t been easy for racing experts to translate for stateside handicapping purposes.

The belief here is that Derma Sotogake is gaining strength and could be poised for an even better run in the Kentucky Derby — and at a double-digit price, there is a good deal of value to be found while including him in your exotic wagers.

We were already fading the superstar Forte, but he’s out and the prices won’t be quite so juicy.

Tapit Trice earned a 99 Beyer number in his Blue Grass Stakes triumph (Forte’s Florida Derby Beyer was 95), and he is versatile enough to navigate all the Kentucky Derby traffic.

Confidence Game, like Derma Sotogake, is a bit of a mystery. He hasn’t run since a stirring win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in late February, but trainer Keith Desormeaux has patiently built up the colt and he could be a live long shot to include among your exactas, trifectas and superfecta wagers.

Confidence Game also earned a competitive Timeform Rating of 117 (the same as Angel of Empire’s last start and one point better than Forte’s Florida Derby) in the Rebel.