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Sports Betting

Kentucky Derby predictions, odds: best long-shot horses to play

Action Network
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FILE - Rich Strike, with Sonny Leon aboard, crosses the finish line to win the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 7, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. Rich Strike's stunning upset victory in last year's Kentucky Derby as a nearly 81-1 long shot provided the race's second biggest odds winner in four years.

FILE - Rich Strike, with Sonny Leon aboard, crosses the finish line to win the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 7, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. Rich Strike's stunning upset victory in last year's Kentucky Derby as a nearly 81-1 long shot provided the race's second biggest odds winner in four years. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

After Rich Strike came out of nowhere to win last year’s Kentucky Derby with 80-to-1 odds, every bettor in the world is looking for the next underrated, big plus-odds horse to bet on the sport’s biggest stage.

On the one hand, expecting a long-shot horse to win in consecutive years is likely unwise. On the other hand, the morning-line favorite hasn’t won the Derby in five years (Justify at 3-to-1 in 2018), as it’s generally a wide-open race.

Either way, it’s always worth sprinkling cash on horses with longer odds. I like a couple with odds longer than 15-to-1.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Best Kentucky Derby Long-shot Bet No. 1

22. Mandarin Hero (28-to-1)

Before the horse got scratched on Friday afternoon, I initially liked Practical Move as a moderate long-shot bet. Practical Move entered the Derby off three straight victories, most recently the Santa Anita Derby.

Well, a nose behind Practical Move in that race was runner-up Mandarin Hero, as the Japanese horse rallied late after getting bumped at the start.

Mandarin Hero finished that race with a 105 Equibase speed rating and a 100 Brisnet speed rating.

Eighteen of the past 23 Derby winners posted a triple-digit Brisnet speed rating in their final prep race. Mandarin Hero is one of nine horses in this year’s field that met that mark.

Mandarin Hero is unproven, and he has an outside post position. But he seems to have the speed to compete, especially with the horse I liked the best entering Friday morning.

That’s worth a long-shot wager to me.

Best Kentucky Derby Long-shot Bet No. 2

7. Reincarnate (16-to-1)

Speaking of post positions… Reincarnate has the perfect post position.

The formerly Bob Baffert-trained colt (Tim Yakteen is the official trainer for the Derby) is also a quick breaker and has enough early foot and tactical speed to be at the front of the pack for a considerable amount of this race.

That said, does Reincarnate have the closing speed to hold off the field?

The simple answer is no.

However, Reincarnate also has three-time Derby winner John Velazquez in the saddle. Two of Valezquez’s wins came after an early lead, so this duo can win this way.

Reincarnate also comes into this race in good form, having placed third in the Arkansas Derby last month. In fact, Reincarnate has placed third or better in all seven of his career starts.

There is a path for Reincarnate and Velazquez to win the Derby their way. It may require a perfect start, but that’s possible (especially with this field and post position) and is worth a wager at this price.