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College Basketball Betting

Pacers vs. Celtics prediction: can Indiana play up to competition?

Action Network
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Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) brings the ball up court during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Charlotte Hornets, Monday, March 20, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C.

Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) brings the ball up court during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Charlotte Hornets, Monday, March 20, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (Matt Kelley/AP)

Boston is in a race for the top playoff seed and hosts Indiana this Friday. So, naturally, we have a Pacers vs. Celtics prediction.

Indiana is still looking for a play-in spot, but it’s looking bleaker by the day. The Pacers are now 1.5-games behind the Bulls for 10th place in the Eastern Conference.

These two have played some instant classics over the past few years. But which team has the edge in this matchup?

And, more importantly, where does the betting value lie?

Read on for the odds alongside my pick and prediction for Pacers vs. Celtics.

Pacers vs. Celtics odds

Spread: Pacers +12.5 (-110) vs. Celtics -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Pacers (+520) vs. Celtics (-720)

Total: Over 234.5 (-110) | Under 234.5 (-110)

Pacers vs. Celtics prediction

Indiana Pacers +12.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Indiana will often play up and down to competition, though it’s hard to identify which games the Pacers will get up for. However, the Pacers always play the Celtics hard.

According to Bet Labs, Indiana has covered four consecutive against Boston, twice winning outright as double-digit underdogs. The Pacers have the Celtics’ number.

Perhaps it’s because Indiana can get hot offensively. Indiana shoots 3-pointers at the sixth-highest rate in the NBA and makes them at the 12th-highest rate. And the Pacers are the league’s best transition team, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Celtics are a good 3-point and transition defense, ranking top-10 in both, per Cleaning the Glass. However, the C’s defensive numbers aren’t quite as good as the Pacers’ offensive numbers in those categories.

It’s also hard to trust the Celtics currently. The C’s are only 1-4 against the spread in their past four games, losing straight up to Houston and Utah during the stretch. So, while Boston is undoubtedly a talented team, you don’t want to lay big spreads with these Celtics.

That’s especially true against a Pacers team that can get hot quickly.

Indiana’s defense is problematic, but the Pacers should score enough to go punch-for-punch in Boston on Friday. I’m willing to bet Indiana’s quartet of double-digit per game scorers — Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin — will have success at TD Garden.

It’s worth mentioning Haliburton is questionable to play in this one.

But it’s also worth mentioning that Celtics guard Payton Pritchard is likely sidelined Friday, slightly offsetting the Haliburton injury.

Either way, I like the Pacers’ chances.

Ultimately, I’m willing to bet the Pacers’ offense keeps this game within single digits wire to wire. The Action Network’s PRO model projects the Pacers as only 9.1-point underdogs on Friday night, so I’ll happily bet Indiana +12.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook.