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Sports Betting

Hornets vs. Bulls prediction: how we’re making a case for the defense

Action Network
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Charlotte Hornets' guard Theo Maledon (9) during an NBA basketball game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Tuesday, March 28, 2023, in Oklahoma City.

Charlotte Hornets' guard Theo Maledon (9) during an NBA basketball game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Tuesday, March 28, 2023, in Oklahoma City. (Sue Ogrocki/AP)

Before Friday’s NBA Eastern Conference tip in Charlotte, we’re set to provide a Hornets vs. Bulls prediction and best bet.

In terms of recent results, the Hornets and Bulls are going in opposite directions. Despite sitting 14th in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets have won three games in a row, including a Tuesday road win against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For the Bulls, they’ve dropped two games in a row, including an 11-point home defeat against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday.

The Bulls are a whopping 10-point road favorite with the total set at 224 points. Bettors believing the Hornets can pull the upset can get +380 on the moneyline.

Hornets vs. Bulls Prediction

Total Under 224 Points (-110)

This represents an admittedly low total, but both defenses have played well in recent games.

Surprisingly, the Bulls have played slightly worse — they’re 16th in defensive rating over their past five games, per NBA Advanced Stats — but are more consistent over the entire season.

According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bulls are sixth in adjusted defensive rating for the season having faced the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses.

Plus, if you expand their recent form sample to consider the past 10 games overall, bettors will find Chicago is more in line with their season-long rating as they sit seventh in defensive rating.

This also represents a good buy-low spot on the Chicago defense as they’ve faced a brutal schedule of late.

Over their past six games, they’ve played the Lakers twice, the 76ers twice, the Clippers and Trail Blazers. All told, those teams average an adjusted offensive rating of 13.67.

Now, they get to face a Hornets offense that ranks 30th in adjusted offensive rating for the season and 28th in offensive rating over their past 10 games.

Even if you shrink the sample down to their last five games, Charlotte is still 25th in offensive rating.

At the same time, bettors should not be quick to discount this Charlotte defense, which has played exceptionally well of late. As it stands, the Hornets are 20th in adjusted defensive rating for the season having faced the third-hardest set of opposing offenses.

Consider their past five and 10-game samples and bettors will find the Hornets are seventh and 11th in defensive rating, again per NBA Advanced Stats.

They’re also unquestionably better defensively at home, surrendering 3.1 fewer points per game in North Carolina.

Plus, they’re coming off a strong defensive home performance, allowing only 104 points to a Mavericks team rated sixth in adjusted offensive rating.

Given the Bulls are a sizable offensive downgrade from that team — they’re 23rd in adjusted offensive rating and rank 20th in offensive rating over their past 10 games — expect a solid showing from the Charlotte defense.

Based on those trends, it’s the under or nothing for me.