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After a thrilling Sweet 16, the Bulldogs and Huskies meet in the West Region title game. We have a Gonzaga vs. UConn prediction for which team will earn a Final Four berth.
Drew Timme was heroic in his 36-point outing that carried the Zags over UCLA, although it wasn’t without some help from Julian Strawther. Meanwhile, UConn overwhelmed Arkansas, putting together the most impressive performance of any team Thursday.
However, this will be an entirely different matchup. UConn must keep Gonzaga out of transition, and the Bulldogs must keep the Huskies off the boards.
The whole game will be predicated on those two points, as will my handicap.
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So, read on for the odds alongside my prediction and pick for Gonzaga vs. UConn.
Gonzaga vs. UConn odds
Spread: Gonzaga +2 (-110) vs. UConn -2 (-110)
Moneyline: Gonzaga (-135) vs. UConn (+115)
Total: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
Gonzaga vs. UConn prediction
UConn Huskies -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Connecticut grades out in the 81st percentile in transition points per possession (PPP) allowed, per Synergy Sports. Gonzaga is the most lethal transition offense in the league, so while the Bulldogs won’t be denied, we can reasonably expect the Huskies to contain.
Stopping Timme in the post will prove more difficult, as UConn’s post defense isn’t elite by any metric. However, the Huskies are enormous on the interior, which they hopefully leverage in this matchup.
Additionally, it’s hard to find a better individual defender in the nation than Andre Jackson, who was graded as the Big East’s fifth-best defender by EvanMiya’s Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating. Jackson will be a force against Gonzaga’s bevy of guard and wing talent.
I expect Gonzaga to keep UConn off the boards, but I have no idea how Gonzaga stops UConn’s half-court offense.
The Huskies run all sorts of complicated interior sets. First, they’ll run pick-and-roll ball screens, dribble hand-offs and off-screen action to generate shots for Jordan Hawkins and Triston Newton. Then, if all else fails, they’ll dump it down in the post to Adama Sanogo and let him cook.
Gonzaga has struggled with every set this season. The Bulldogs rank (per ShotQuality):
- 328th in pick-and-roll PPP allowed
- 210th in off-screen PPP allowed
- 154th in cutting PPP allowed
- 317th in post-up PPP allowed
The Bulldogs also rank 353rd in catch-and-shoot PPP allowed, and the Huskies love to spot-up from the perimeter.
The main issue is that Timme is a turnstile on defense. He’ll be right in the middle of UConn’s set pieces, likely getting exploited in any way coach Dan Hurley desires.
On top of that, coach Mark Few has to prepare for all these complicated pieces on a two-day turnaround. Few is a great head coach, but prepping for the Huskies takes more than 48 hours.
The Bulldogs’ win over UCLA was most impressive, but it took a furious second-half comeback against a severely shorthanded Bruins team. The Bruins were out of gas by the 30-minute mark.
The Huskies are going to be fresh for 40 minutes. Thanks to a blowout victory, Andre Jackson and Newton played just 32 and 31 minutes, respectively. And Sanogo played only 24 minutes.
Meanwhile, both Timme and Strawther played for 38 minutes in one of the most emotional wins of their life. If anyone is going to suffer a late-game collapse in the Elite Eight, it’ll be the Zags.
The market opened with Gonzaga as a short favorite, but the line quickly flipped, meaning sharper bettors are on the Huskies.
Given the schematic matchup, two-day turnaround and market report, I strongly encourage a wager on the UConn Huskies -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.