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The first game in the Elite Eight tips off in the East region, and we have a Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State prediction.
Both teams were impressive in their Sweet 16 victories as Florida Atlantic overcame a five-point halftime deficit to upset a fourth-seeded Tennessee team, 62-55.
If we turn to Kansas State, it was involved in perhaps the best game of the tournament so far after outlasting Michigan State 98-93 in overtime.
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Playing at Madison Square Garden has the feel of a homecoming for many on the Kansas State team when you consider that three of its players hail from Harlem and another from Queens.
But while it has all the makings of a feel-good story, Florida Atlantic is trying to write its own history.
In this preview, I’ll explain why we shouldn’t expect either team to back down in this Elite Eight matchup.
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State odds
Odds provided by FanDuel
Spread: FAU +1.5 (-105) vs. KSU -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: FAU (+100) vs. KSU (-120)
Total: Over 144.5 (-105) | Under 144.5 (-115)
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State pick
Over 144.5 points or better
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State analysis
The more you watch games in this tournament, the more you’re likely to align yourself with a team to root for.
For me, that team is the Kansas State Wildcats.
Although the Wildcats are a slight favorite in this game, there’s still a bit of a David vs. Goliath feeling to this team because of their diminutive point guard Markquis Nowell. His 5-foot-8 frame belies his savviness and abilities on the court.
The Harlem native punctuated his return to New York by setting a new NCAA Tournament record with a 19-assist effort. His 20 points on the scoresheet were also pretty impressive.
Nowell’s performance caught the eye of the basketball world as even the two-time NBA champion Kevin Durant called it a “legendary display.”
However, the Owls of Florida Atlantic would likely argue that the underdog narrative is more befitting for themselves.
After all, they’re the No. 9 seed facing a No. 3 seed for a trip to the Final Four.
When I think of how to describe this Florida Atlantic team, I’m reminded of that famous line from the movie Rounders where Teddy KGB described his opponent in a poker game as having ‘alligator blood.’
That’s how this Owls team is because they’re tough to put away.
The Memphis Tigers found out the hard way in the first round after Florida Atlantic stole the ball with 13 seconds in the game before hitting the go-ahead bucket.
Florida Atlantic won’t give up quickly and has enough talent to hang with Kansas State. The Owls (26th) rank higher than the Wildcats (35th) in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency metrics.
Those numbers could suggest that they won’t be too bothered if this game is played at a faster pace. The Wildcats rank 43rd in tempo, and they put tremendous pressure on the opposition up and down the floor.
Per ShotQuality, Kansas State is the eighth-ranked team in transition offense.
I think the Owls will relish facing a team that plays with a bit more pace than their previous opponent in Tennessee. The Volunteers slowed the game to a grind, ranking 288th in adjusted tempo with 65 possessions per 40 minutes.
Outside of the Sweet 16 matchup with the Volunteers, Florida Atlantic played two other Power Five teams this season, and both games finished with a combined total of at least 145 points.
Using our Action Labs database, I isolated how Kansas State performs against a team like Florida Atlantic that averages roughly 68 or fewer possessions per game.
Based on those parameters, the total is 10-5 (+4.28 units), and this angle is on a 3-0 run.
This total is at the bottom of my model’s range as I have a projection closer to 147 points.
Given my affinity for Nowell and this Kansas State team, I’m more comfortable rooting for a high-scoring game than having to pick a side in this contest.