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College Basketball Betting

Final Four predictions: target these totals when building your parlay

Action Network
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UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. (44) during the first half of a second-round college basketball game against Saint Mary's in the NCAA Tournament Sunday, March 19, 2023, in Albany, N.Y.

UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. (44) during the first half of a second-round college basketball game against Saint Mary's in the NCAA Tournament Sunday, March 19, 2023, in Albany, N.Y. (Hans Pennink/AP)

You probably won’t find two more contrasting styles in college basketball than with this season’s Final Four participants, and we have Final Four predictions.

Florida Atlantic will take on San Diego State in the early game, while Miami will face Connecticut in the second half of the doubleheader.

The total for the first game opened at 132.5 and has already been bet down a point at most sportsbooks.

As for the second game, there’s been no change to the total since it opened at 149.5.

In this preview, I’ll share my plan to get better than a 2-to-1 return on my action by parlaying some alternate totals.

Same-game parlay +206 at BetRivers

Game 1, Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State: ALT under 136.5 (-210)

You can’t appreciate the quality of this San Diego State defense unless you see it for yourself.

Facing this team must feel somewhat like trying to play basketball inside a phone booth. The Aztecs do a decent job of playing defense without fouling.

Per TeamRankings, San Diego State ranks 95th in opponent free throws per game.

If we look at their advanced metrics, Ken Pomeroy has the Aztecs fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 89.9 points per 100 possessions.

To get an even better idea of how good their defense is, opposing offenses use up roughly 18.5 seconds per possession which ranks 345th in the league in terms of duration.

One thing that San Diego State does that most teams don’t is that it never switches on defense.

How they practice is exactly how they play, and this strategy helps to avoid giving their opposition any matchup advantages.

I think the Owls will have a tough time penetrating San Diego State’s defense, but I’ll add some insurance and buy this total up to 136.5 and play it under.

Game 2, UConn vs. Miami: ALT over 151 points (+107)

I will go in the other direction with this total, given the shot-making ability of both teams, as I’m expecting a fast pace in this contest.

This is a matchup between the No. 3 ranked team (Connecticut) in Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and the No. 5 team (Miami).

Both teams like to get out and run in transition, as ShotQuality ranks Miami 17th in this category while Connecticut is 32nd.

Thus, I think this potential is an up-and-down game that both teams will enjoy.

But what makes Connecticut particularly difficult to face is that it can beat you in many ways.

The Huskies are comfortable going with four guards on the perimeter, and their off-screen activity makes them a nightmare for opposing teams to guard.

When they throw the ball inside, their backcourt players are excellent at kicking it out against double teams.

I think it’s tough to envision where the stops are coming from in this game, so I’m comfortable taking a more aggressive approach and playing this game over a total of 151 points.