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College Basketball Betting

FAU vs. SDSU predictions: early line moves and bets for Final Four matchup

Action Network
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Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May gives instructions to his players from the sidelines during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against UTEP, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in El Paso, Texas.

Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May gives instructions to his players from the sidelines during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against UTEP, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in El Paso, Texas. (Andres Leighton/AP)

In one of the more unlikely scenarios in recent memory, a mid-major team will play in the NCAA Tournament title game, given this Florida Atlantic matchup with San Diego State. So, we have FAU vs. SDSU predictions to make.

The Final Four matchups were set less than 24 hours ago, so let’s analyze the early betting market for this mid-major matchup and use it to make early plays before any potential line movement.

FAU vs. SDSU odds

Spread: FAU +2 (-110) vs. SDSU -2 (-110)

Moneyline: FAU (+110) vs. SDSU (-130)

Total: Over 131 (-110) | Under 131 (-110)

FAU vs. SDSU betting market

At the time of writing, per The Action Network, 54% of the betting tickets are on FAU, but 85% of the betting handle is on the Owls. The Owls are pulling most of the betting action.

As a result, the Owls have moved from two-point underdogs to 1.5-point underdogs at some books, including FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook. Per VSIN, underdogs that see the line move their way are 84-64 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since 2018.

The Action Network reports over 60% of the bets and 90% of the handle is on the under, and the total dropped across the market after opening at 132.5. Currently, the total stands between 131 and 132.

The sharper action is on the under.

FAU vs. SDSU early prediction

FAU Owls +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

From a sharp action perspective, FAU is the best early-week play on the Final Four games. If the current market trend continues, the Owls will not be two-point underdogs at any sportsbook by the end of the week.

So, I’d eat up FAU +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook before the line shifts.

From a matchup perspective, the Owls still have a good shot. Nobody spaces the floor better than FAU with its four-out motion offense, so the Owls should stretch the Aztecs’ notoriously elite defense a bit thin.

The key to beating the Aztecs is to generate offense away from the elite interior defense of Nathan Mensah, Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler. The Owls are very well suited to do that.

And the Owls can get hot in a hurry from deep. Good 3-point shooting can beat any opponent.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs are the least-efficient offense left in the tournament. They obviously can beat any opponent with an elite defense, but they can’t generate offense outside of being tougher than opponents in the midrange area.

SDSU has a huge size advantage over FAU, so hypothetically, the Aztecs will take advantage. However, FAU went toe-to-toe with highly physical Memphis and Tennessee, so I’m surprisingly not worried about the Owls’ size disadvantage.

The Owls will likely not be two-point ‘dogs by the time Saturday arrives, so I’d look to hop in now and earn some solid closing-line value.