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Sports Betting

Everton vs. Newcastle United odds, prediction: how we’re betting this Premier League clash

Action Network
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Newcastle's Callum Wilson, center, celebrates scoring their side's sixth goal of the game during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle United and Tottenham at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England, Sunday, April 23, 2023.

Newcastle's Callum Wilson, center, celebrates scoring their side's sixth goal of the game during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle United and Tottenham at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England, Sunday, April 23, 2023. (Owen Humphreys/AP)

Before Thursday’s Premier League fixture kicks off from Goodison Park, we’re set to provide an Everton vs. Newcastle United prediction.

Hosts Everton are desperate for points as they sit in the relegation zone. Manager Sean Dyche’s side does have a game in hand on Leicester City, who sit a point ahead in 17th.

Regarding Newcastle, they’re in a bit of an odd spot. The Magpies are comfortably among the Champions League spots — five points clear of fifth with two games in hand — but can’t challenge for the title.

Newcastle is a -130 road favorite on Thursday with Everton priced at +360. The draw is +260 and the total is 2.5 goals, juiced -130 to the under.

Everton vs. Newcastle United Prediction + Best Bet

Both Teams to Score — “Yes” (-115)

This is largely a play on Everton’s attack as I’ll be shocked if Newcastle fail to score here.

The Toffees defense has looked abysmal and has held only two teams under 0.5 expected goals across the entire campaign. In a trip to St. James’ Park, Newcastle created 1.5 expected goals, per fbref.com.

Regarding Newcastle, only two teams have held them under 0.5 an expected goal, Aston Villa and Manchester City. Thus, that portion of the prop bet should cash with relative ease.

That said, this is an Everton attack with Dominic Calvert-Lewin back in the lineup that has performed very well at home this season.

Through 16 domestic fixtures at Goodison Park, Everton has created 1.24 expected goals per 90 minutes and has failed to score in only four home fixtures. However, of those four games, they created at least one expected goal in three, per fbref.com.

Evaluate the home fixtures under new manager Dyche and bettors will find Everton are creating 1.33 expected goals per 90 minutes and have found the back of the net in all but one of those matches.

Newcastle’s defense is slightly less effective when playing away from home. Through 16 domestic trips, the Magpies are allowing 0.32 more expected goals per 90 compared with home matches and have kept only four road clean sheets, only two of which were deserved.

Even if you exclude the performance against Manchester City, manager Eddie Howe’s side has conceded in five straight road fixtures while allowing 1.18 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.

With Everton desperate for a result, expect a positive performance from their attack. Bet this prop market so long as it remains available at -115 or better.