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Sports Betting

English Premier League predictions: West Ham United and more

Action Network
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Crystal Palace's Wilfried Zaha during the English Premier League soccer match between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa at Villa Park, Birmingham, England, Saturday March 4, 2023.

Crystal Palace's Wilfried Zaha during the English Premier League soccer match between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa at Villa Park, Birmingham, England, Saturday March 4, 2023. (Jacob King/AP)

Before Matchday 29 kicks off on Saturday and Sunday, we’re set to provide a pair of English Premier League predictions.

The weekend’s action is headlined by Manchester City-Liverpool on Saturday and Newcastle United-Manchester United on Sunday, but the weekend is filled with numerous other meaningful matches.

For example, Saturday’s slate features league leaders Arsenal against relegation threat Leeds United while Sunday’s two-game slate is capped off by West Ham United vs. Southampton.

But, which markets offer bettors the best value bets across the entire weekend? Below are my two best bets for the slate.

Odds are reflective at time of writing.

EPL Matchday 29 Prediction No. 1

Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-128) vs. Leicester City, FanDuel Sportsbook

Time will tell if we’ve reached the bottom of the market on Palace, but I rate this a fantastic buy-low spot.

The Eagles have faced a brutal home schedule of late — Tottenham, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Brighton, Liverpool and Man City were their past six opponents — but they actually did OK defensively in those fixtures.

Against what I have rated as six of the seven best attacks in the league, Palace allowed only 1.2 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com, while holding four teams under one npxGOT.

That will come in handy against a Leicester side creating only 1.11 npxGOT away from home this season that also allows 1.59 npxGOT away from home.

Plus, this was a Palace side that started strong at home early in the season before a disastrous run against difficult opponents. In their first seven home matches this season, the Eagles produced a +2.55 non-penalty xGOT differential and created 1.44 npxGOT per 90.

Thus, back the hosts to do no worse than a result at -135 or better.

EPL Matchday 29 Prediction No. 2

West Ham Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115), BetMGM

The Hammers currently find themselves in the relegation zone and will need to chase goals to get out of it.

For all their issues this season, Sunday’s hosts have done a good job at home against inferior opposition. Through eight home games against the 10-worst npxGOT differential sides, the Hammers are creating 1.44 npxGOT per 90 minutes and have surpassed this benchmark in half of those games.

Plus, over their past four home games, manager David Moyes’ side is creating 1.65 npxGOT per 90 minutes, including at least 1.2 in three.

Although Southampton’s road defense is decent, they allowed West Ham to run rampant in the reverse fixture. While the fact only four shots hit the target, West Ham attempted 25 shots for a total of 1.68 expected goals.

Given West Ham tend to generate a higher shot quality at home — 0.31 npxGOT per shot at the London Stadium vs. 0.19 away from home — and hit the target more often — 4.23 shots on target per 90 at home vs. 3.08 away from home — bettors should expect a solid showing from the West Ham attack.

Back this market at -125 or better on Sunday.