Advertisement
Sports Betting

English Premier League predictions, odds: best bets for Matchday 34, including Brentford

Action Network
•
Liverpool players celebrate after Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, second right, scored his side's fourth goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Leeds United and Liverpool at Elland Road in Leeds, England, Monday, April 17, 2023.

Liverpool players celebrate after Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, second right, scored his side's fourth goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Leeds United and Liverpool at Elland Road in Leeds, England, Monday, April 17, 2023. (Rui Vieira/AP)

The midweek action is officially in our rearview mirror as we prepare to share our English Premier League predictions for Matchday 34.

The weekend slate is headlined by Liverpool vs. Tottenham on Sunday with Arsenal hosting Chelsea on Tuesday. Elsewhere, title favorites Manchester City travel to Fulham, Manchester United welcomes Aston Villa and Leicester City hosts Everton in a relegation six-pointer.

But, which matches and markets offer bettors the most value? Let’s dive into my two best bets for the entire slate.

Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

EPL Matchday 34 Prediction No. 1

Brentford Goal-Line (-1.5, +165 | Bet to +150) vs. Nottingham Forest

This might be my favorite bet of the entire year.

Based on their past four domestic fixtures, Forest enter this match a big negative regression candidate. In those contests, at Liverpool and Aston Villa and vs. Manchester United and Brighton, the Tricky Trees own a -4 non-penalty goal differential against a -7.7 non-penalty expected goal differential, per fbref.com.

Forest has also struggled immensely away from home against comparable sides. In trips to Brighton, Tottenham, Aston Villa and West Ham — sides that average a +0.43 xG differential at home — they’ve posted a -1.38 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.

Now, they have to face a Brentford side with a +0.47 xG differential per 90 at home, which rises to +0.64 npxG differential per 90 against the six worst road sides they’ve faced to date.

Given Forest is a -1 xG differential per 90 away from home, that makes Brentford north of a two-goal favorite in my book. Take the Bees -1.5 at +150 or better and don’t be afraid to chase an alternate spread.

EPL Matchday 34 Prediction No. 2

Liverpool/Tottenham Over 3.5 Goals (+115 | Bet to +105)

A square play — almost certainly. A logical play — also certainly.

In domestic fixtures at Anfield this season, Liverpool matches are averaging 3.29 expected goals per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Tottenham road fixtures are also high-event, averaging 2.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

However, don’t the latter number trick you. This is a Tottenham defense that has struggled immensely at top sides. Through five trips to Newcastle, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, Spurs are allowing just their opponents to create 2.3 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Over its past four matches — irrespective of venue — Tottenham is allowing 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Now, Spurs have to face a Liverpool side that created 3.2 non-penalty expected goals at home against Arsenal, a side allowing 0.29 xG per 90 fewer away from home than Tottenham.

That said, this is a Liverpool side ripe for negative defensive regression.

This season, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has conceded 39 goals against 44.2 expected. At home, it’s 13 goals conceded against 15.2 expected.

Based on those outputs, back a high-scoring affair at +105 or better or take over three goals at -135 or better.