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Sports Betting

English Premier League odds, predictions: two sides we’re betting

Action Network
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Aston Villa's head coach Unai Emery gestures from the sidelines to his players during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and Leeds United at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, Friday, Jan. 13, 2023.

Aston Villa's head coach Unai Emery gestures from the sidelines to his players during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and Leeds United at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, Friday, Jan. 13, 2023. (Rui Vieira/AP)

The European competition window has closed and we can now turn our attention providing English Premier League predictions for Matchday 31.

The slate begins on Saturday with Aston Villa vs. Newcastle with Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion serving as the Saturday headliner across the seven-match slate.

Then, bettors have two choices on Sunday as West Ham hosts Arsenal and Nottingham Forest welcomes Manchester United. The week closes out Monday with Leeds United vs. Liverpool.

But, which teams should bettors target across the entire weekend? Below are my best side bets for the entire slate.

Odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Premier League Matchday 31 Prediction No. 1

Aston Villa Goal-Line (+0.5, -135) vs. Newcastle United

Give the Magpies credit for dropping all three points only twice away from home this season, but their 7-6-2 (W-D-L) road record is a bit misleading.

Of those seven victories, only two have come against teams ninth or better in the league table.

Sample the six games against teams falling in that framework and bettors will find Newcastle owns a -1.38 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) differential away from home. Even if you take out their road defeat against Manchester City, they still own a -0.74 npxGOT differential in five road fixtures against Brighton, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Brentford.

Now, they face a Villa side that has looked very good at home under Unai Emery.

If you just consider the four home matches against Brentford, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool, bettors will find Villa holds a +0.51 npxGOT differential per 90 while earning a result in half of those fixtures.

Thus, take Villa as a home underdog at -140 or better.

Premier League Matchday 31 Prediction No. 2

Everton Moneyline (+103 | Bet to -110) vs. Fulham

Fulham bossed the Toffees in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage, but this is an entirely different Everton side that should earn all three points at home.

Since appointing Sean Dyche as manager, Everton has proved a very pesky home team. In five fixtures at Goodison Park, Everton are 3-1-1 (W-D-L) with wins coming against Arsenal, Brentford and Leeds United.

Across those five matches, the Toffees own a +2.25 npxGOT differential and have held four of five opponents to fewer than 0.6 npxGOT.

Fulham arrive at this match without their best player, Alexander Mitrovic, and a major road regression candidate. Entering this match, the Cottagers own a +1 road goal differential along with a -3.72 npxGOT differential.

Most of that overperformance can be attributed to lucky defensive bounces — 16 non-penalty goals against vs. 20.92 npxGOTA — but this is simultaneously a side that has created under 0.6 npxGOT in three of their past five road games.

Based on those outputs, take a desperate Everton team at -110 or better.