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Sports Betting

English Premier League odds, predictions: best bets involve Aston Villa, Newcastle matches

Action Network
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Brentford's Ivan Toney celebrates scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, at The AMEX Stadium in Brighton, England, Saturday April 1, 2023.

Brentford's Ivan Toney celebrates scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, at The AMEX Stadium in Brighton, England, Saturday April 1, 2023. (Kieran Cleeves/AP)

Before Matchday 30 kicks off Saturday morning, we’re set to provide a pair of English Premier League predictions.

The weekend slate is headlined by Liverpool vs. Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday with Tottenham vs. Brighton & Hove Albion serving as the marquee fixture on Saturday. But, plenty of other meaningful matches fill the betting card, including Manchester United vs. Everton and a relegation six-pointer between Leicester City and Bournemouth.

But, which matches and markets offer bettors the best value? Let’s dive into my best bets for the weekend.

Odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Premier League Prediction No. 1

Aston Villa 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-130) vs. Nottingham Forest

Put simply, Villa faces a Nottingham Forest team playing on short rest at a venue where they excel offensively.

Since Unai Emery took the reins at Villa, they’ve proved a first-half juggernaut offensively. Through nine home matches under the former Arsenal boss, Villa have registered a first-half goal in all but two games, including five straight successes.

They’re also much better offensively at home, creating 0.53 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes more compared to their road outputs. Under Emery, Villa is creating 1.5 npxGOT per 90 minutes at home.

Forest counts themselves among the worst Premier League defenses away from home. Through 14 road efforts, manager Steve Cooper’s side is allowing 1.92 npxGOT per 90 minutes and has allowed a first-half tally in eight of those 14 games.

However, within the six successes, they allowed at least one xGOT in two of the six.

For those reasons, back the hosts to score early at -145 or better.

Premier League Prediction No. 2

Brentford Goal-Line (+0.5, -135) vs. Newcastle United

This shapes up as the ultimate sell-high spot on Newcastle United, who won 5-1 in the midweek against West Ham after a 2-0 home win over Manchester United last weekend.

But, although they won 5-1 against Brentford at home earlier this season, Thomas Frank’s side has proved a pesky opponent at the Brentford Community Stadium. Through 14 home fixtures, the Bees have a +0.2 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes and have avoided defeat in all but one home game.

Plus, in home games against the Big Six, Brentford owns a +0.29 npxGOT differential per 90 minutes.

Although Newcastle has a +0.75 npxGOT differential away from home, that is a function of dominating inferior clubs. Through six road matches against Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City, Newcastle’s road npxGOT differential drops to -0.31.

Even if you just exclude their last two road results against Forest and West Ham, Newcastle sees their road npxGOT differential drop to +0.59.

Thus, take Brentford as home underdogs at -140 or better.