Advertisement
College Basketball Betting

Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction: how we’re betting this Elite Eight showdown

Action Network
•
Creighton head coach Greg McDermott directs his team against North Carolina State in the second half of a first-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament, Friday, March 17, 2023, in Denver.

Creighton head coach Greg McDermott directs his team against North Carolina State in the second half of a first-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament, Friday, March 17, 2023, in Denver. (David Zalubowski/AP)

We’ve made it to the South Regional finals in Louisville, Kentucky, on Sunday and we have a Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs prediction.

Per Bracketologists.com, the Mountain West Conference entered Selection Sunday fifth in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking with an average value of 83.18.

As a result, the selection committee handed the league three at-large bids to go along with the automatic bid awarded to San Diego State for winning the conference tournament.

And while some might’ve scoffed at the Aztecs receiving a No. 5 seed, they’ve proved their doubters wrong by knocking off the top overall seed in Alabama. Given the quick turnaround for the Elite Eight matchup against Creighton, there won’t be much time to celebrate.

This is the perfect time to fade San Diego State off its historic win.

Creighton vs. San Diego State odds

Odds provided by BetRivers

Spread: CRE -1.5 (-109) vs. SD ST. +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline: CRE (-122) vs. SD ST. (+104)

Total: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)

Creighton vs. San Diego State pick

Creighton ML -122

Creighton vs. San Diego State analysis

Sharp bettors didn’t take the bait in laying the points with Alabama against Creighton. Alabama was bet down a half-point after opening as a seven-point favorite.

The reality is there was always the potential for San Diego State to be a dangerous matchup.

For starters, Alabama ranks 36th in percentage (36.3%) of scoring from 3-pointers, according to TeamRankings.

If you’ve read any of my recent work during this tournament, you’ll know I’ve often suggested bettors should be cautious with teams that rely too much on perimeter shots. Alabama certainly falls into that category, and it met its match against the Aztecs, who rank third in limiting opponents to 28.1% 3-point shooting from the floor.

Thus, San Diego’s ability to defend the perimeter led to Alabama shooting just 11.1% on its 3-point attempts.

Ironically, part of what’s made Alabama so successful also led to its downfall. Instead of looking for other ways to score points, the Crimson Tide continued to hoist up shots from the perimeter.

Alabama ended up attempting 27 shots and connected on just three of them.

Creighton will likely display a more balanced offense against San Diego State. The Bluejays rank 255th in percentage (48.7%) of scoring from 2-pointers and 86th in scoring from 3-pointers.

Thus, I don’t think they’ll continue to pump 3-pointers ad nauseam like the Crimson Tide did, especially when the shots aren’t falling.

When Creighton pops in the tape of San Diego State’s Sweet 16 game, I’m sure that coach Greg McDermott will point out exactly how Alabama beat itself. If Creighton and San Diego State played on a neutral floor during the regular season, the Bluejays would probably be closer to six-point favorites.

But with San Diego State coming off a massive win over Alabama, we’re getting a discount on Creighton at -1.5.

The Bluejays’ 86-point effort against Princeton also could bode well for them in the Elite Eight. Since 2012, our Action Labs database shows that teams in this spot are 7-2-3 against the spread (77.8%).

With such a short price to lay with the favorites, I recommend bypassing the point spread altogether and backing Creighton on the BetRivers moneyline at -122.