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Chicago’s COVID-19 risk level has risen from “low” to “medium” for the first time since last January.
The heightened warning, spurred by a jump in hospitalizations, shows the virus’s spread “is creeping up,” said Dr. Alex Sloboda, medical director of immunization and emergency preparedness programs with the Chicago Department of Public Health.
“COVID-19 is still with us,” Sloboda told the Tribune on Thursday. “We’ve seen it has the potential to be significant, severe and make people ill. We have a solution to all this: the vaccination.”
Over the last week, 34 people per day have been admitted to Chicago hospitals because of complications with COVID-19, CDPH data shows.
Hospitalizations have slowly risen since July, when admissions hit a pandemic low of three per day. COVID-related hospital admissions rose 11% in the last week, according to the CDPH.
Other transmission indicators have also steadily risen throughout the city. COVID-19 patients are taking up 4% of the city’s hospital beds and account for 2.6% of Chicago emergency room visits, while on average 1.6 Chicagoans are dying from the disease daily, CDPH data shows. City testing also shows COVID-19 viral load levels in wastewater have recently increased.
However, the number of lab-confirmed cases in Chicago dropped 21% in the last week to a daily average of 254 cases. Medical experts have previously told the Tribune lab-based testing is a less useful metric as fewer people seek testing.
The reason for the heightened numbers is simple, UChicago Medicine’s hospital epidemiologist Dr. Emily Landon said.
“It’s because there’s a lot of people with COVID,” she said. “It’s time to find your masks.”
The increased spread isn’t unexpected, Landon added. Respiratory viruses spread easier through cold air and as people gather inside in winter. During the holidays, as people mix with more and more groups before returning to work or school, respiratory illness transmission can ramp up even faster, she added.
“I’m not surprised at all,” Landon said.
The epidemiologist believes the rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations is related to people not getting the updated vaccine made public in the fall. Only 12.6% of Chicagoans are up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations, according to the CDPH.
Whether people are thinking about it or not, the virus can still kill and seriously harm, Landon said. People should get the vaccine every year, she added.
“I think the numbers are still increasing dramatically, and we can expect that to happen for a little bit longer here,” she said. “Individuals should definitely go ahead and get that vaccine if they haven’t gotten it yet.”
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Chicagoans can also protect themselves by wearing highly-protective, well-fitting masks, especially if they are in medical care facilities. Even wearing simple surgical cloth masks can make a big difference, she added.
“You can make decisions about times when it’s worth the risk to you to be unmasked,” Landon said. “But honestly, if you’re going to the grocery store or if you’re going to go wait in line at the DMV, I’d be wearing a mask right now — and I am.”
People who are sick need to stay home, including kids who might miss school, Landon said. If sick people must go out, they need to wear a mask, she said. At-home tests are sometimes slow to show positivity in the early stages of COVID-19 illness, she added.
“It’s really important that we think about our neighbor. If you wouldn’t slap someone in the face, you probably shouldn’t spend time around them unmasked if you’re not feeling well,” Landon said. “It’s a different situation than it was in the last six months, and it’s time to start worrying about keeping yourself and your family healthy.”
The virus is spreading faster while causing more hospitalizations and deaths across the country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National hospitalizations rose 16.7% in the most recent week with data, while deaths jumped 10%, bringing the pandemic’s total to 1,163,040 people in America dead due to COVID-19.
As COVID-19 spreads with a new variant, called JN.1, influenza is also suddenly spreading much faster in Chicago. Medical experts flagged the concurring spread of COVID-19, influenza and RSV as a “tripledemic” in December.
At Northwestern Memorial Hospital’s intensive care unit, medical director Dr. Susan Russell has seen an uptick in COVID-19 patients.
“It’s certainly not the surge levels we’ve seen in the past few years, but there is a definite increase,” Russell said. “I’m disappointed, but not surprised.”
The hospital isn’t seeing the prolonged severe illness that many caretakers handled early in the pandemic, she said. But while hospitalized patients are generally having shorter ICU stays, many people — especially immunocompromised people — are still facing severe complications.
[ Lingering long COVID looms even as Chicago hospital admissions decline, Northwestern research shows ]
“We are still seeing some very bad infections and people ending up on a ventilator,” Russell said. “It’s not the same volume as it was before, but we are seeing it.”
Russell called on Chicagoans to use “common sense” by staying home if sick and getting vaccinated. Those dealing with COVID-19 should reach out to their physicians, who can provide medicines effective in treating the illness such as Paxlovid, she said.
While the current rate of transmission is far lower than during spikes in 2021 and 2022, it’s so far difficult to compare to last winter’s Chicago spread, Sloboda said.
COVID-19 hospitalizations were higher this time last year, but trending down, he said. The virus’s current rise will be tested in the next two months.
“Hopefully things don’t get worse, but last winter we did kind of get up into that high-risk zone, and years before it’s gotten bad,” Sloboda said. “Honestly, it could also be worse than it was last year if we continue on this trajectory.”
The city is not currently considering any mask mandates, Sloboda said. Chicago’s hospitalization levels remain far below “high” levels. However, some hospitals across Chicagoland, including all three Rush hospitals, are requiring patients, visitors and staff to wear masks.
Masks and vaccines remain the best tools to fight the virus, Sloboda said. The CDPH is currently studying the low vaccine uptake across Chicago, he added.
Thinking about what he’d say to people worn out in the virus’s fourth year, Sloboda said rising COVID-19 spread could mean longer emergency room waits and fewer medical appointments available for everyone.
Before he started his new position at CDPH last month, Sloboda worked in emergency departments. He saw firsthand how bad waiting rooms can be and how often hospitals are stretched for beds.
“Our whole health care system is already strained,” he said. Preventable cases of COVID-19 could only further strain it, he added.