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Sports Betting

NCAA Tournament predictions, futures odds: best early bets to win 2024 men’s title

Action Network
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Michigan State guard Tyson Walker (2) plays against Marquette a second-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament in Columbus, Ohio, Sunday, March 19, 2023.

Michigan State guard Tyson Walker (2) plays against Marquette a second-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament in Columbus, Ohio, Sunday, March 19, 2023. (Michael Conroy/AP)

UConn rolled to the 2023 NCAA Tournament title, and the Huskies are favorites again in 2024. However, is betting on a repeat the best NCAA Tournament prediction we can make?

In the transfer portal era, it’s very tough to forecast college basketball teams a year in advance.

But, sometimes, the best time to find bad lines and value in the futures market is right after the books open the markets. Well, shortly after these markets opened, I believe I’ve found a couple of long-shot bets already worth making.

Remember to shop around for the best lines, especially considering how inefficient these early markets are.

College basketball futures predictions: the favorites

Before we get into the value-laden futures bets, let’s investigate the chalk.

UConn is the favorite to repeat across the market, sitting as short as +1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Huskies should return Donovon Clingan and Alex Karaban next season, but the roster is in flux outside of that.

Duke sits directly behind UConn in the markets, as Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell are confirmed to return for next season. John Scheyer found his stride at the end of last season, as the Blue Devils won 10 of their final 11 games, including an ACC Tournament title.

Other top teams include Alabama (+1500 to +2500), Kentucky (+1500 to +1800), Arizona (+1500 to +1700) and Purdue (+1600 to +2200).

Among that group, I don’t mind a bet on Kentucky. The Wildcats are bringing in the best recruiting class in the nation, per 247 Sports, and putting the pieces together could lead to a high-upside team.

College basketball futures predictions: best 2024 bet No. 1

Marquette Golden Eagles (+2500 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Marquette is going to be awesome next season. Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Oso Ighodaro should return to a squad that won the Big East regular-season title and earned a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Coach Shaka Smart’s offense moved the basketball inside-out better than any team I’ve seen. Kolek and Ighodaro’s ball screens spearheaded a top-10 offense by KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and the duo will likely be better in 2024.

Of course, the big issue here is Coach Smart’s NCAA Tournament record. Since leading VCU to the Final Four in 2011, he’s 3-9 in nine March Madness appearances between Texas and Marquette.

That said, this team is too talented, and I’m willing to take a stab with the Golden Eagles.

College basketball futures predictions: best 2024 bet No. 2

Michigan State Spartans (+4000 at Caesars Sportsbook)

If Tyson Walker decides to return for another year, the Spartans will have their best chance to win a title since the early 2000s.

AJ Hoggard should be back alongside Jaden Akins and Mady Sissoko, so the floor for the Spartans is high. However, Walker took a big step forward as a scoring guard this season, and he could be one of the best guards in basketball with one more year under Michigan State coach Tom Izzo.

The Spartans also have the third-best recruiting class in the nation, per 247 Sports, headlined by five-star center Xavier Booker.

Michigan State will have a great mix of veterans, young talent, experience and dynamic playmakers (especially in the backcourt). As a result, the Spartans should be a preseason top-five team and favorites to win the Big Ten.

The Spartans should also be worth a bet. They’re being offered at 40-1 on Caesars Sportsbook instead of 25-1 at most other books, instantly creating closing-line value.