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Sports Betting

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction: how we’re betting this Bundesliga clash

Action Network
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Dortmund's goalkeeper Alexander Meyer goes for a save in front of Bayern's Leroy Sane, left, during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in Dortmund, Germany, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022.

Dortmund's goalkeeper Alexander Meyer goes for a save in front of Bayern's Leroy Sane, left, during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in Dortmund, Germany, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. (Martin Meissner/AP)

Before Saturday’s marquee Bundesliga fixture, we’re set to provide a Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction.

This marks the first match for Bayern under new coach Thomas Tuchel as the German giants seek to overtake their domestic rivals, who sit a point clear of the holders with nine games left.

Most recently, Bayern dropped all three points in a road defeat against Bayer Leverkusen while Dortmund claimed a 6-1 home win against Koln before the international break.

On Saturday, Bayern are a -210 favorite with Dortmund sitting at +475. The draw is +300 with the total set at 3.5 goals, juiced -120 to the over.

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-120)

Sometimes it’s hip to be square and this match is definitely one bettors shouldn’t overthink.

Historically, head-to-head meetings between these sides tend to prove very high-scoring contests. Across the past four meetings between these clubs, all four have cleared 3.5 goals with half of those meetings surpassing 4.5 goals as well.

The underlying metrics have backed up those performances with Bayern and Dortmund combining to create 3.94 expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes across those four meetings. While penalties have helped boost that average — the sides are creating 3.21 non-penalty xGOT per 90 — all current evidence suggests goals in this meeting.

At home this season, Bayern are creating 2.88 npxGOT per 90 minutes and average almost 10 shots on target per match. That’s a big upgrade from their road performances, which sees Bayern creating 1.79 npxGOT per 90 and averaging 6.15 shots on target per 90 minutes.

With a new manager coming in, bettors should expect an improvement from the Bayern offense off their 1.42 npxGOT performance in Dortmund, especially when you factor in Dortmund’s road defensive performances this season.

Upon first glance, it may look encouraging that Dortmund is allowing only 1.39 npxGOT away from home this season, but that’s largely due to quality performances against inferior sides.

Through eight games against the current top-10 in the Bundesliga, Dortmund are allowing 1.68 npxGOT per 90 minutes and six shots on target per 90 minutes.

At the same time, the Dortmund attack shouldn’t be discounted in this spot, especially when you consider some of Bayern’s poor defensive performances.

In their most recent home match, Bayern allowed 1.84 npxGOT to a supremely overrated Augsburg attack and has looked vulnerable against quality opposition at home this season. In two home games against Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen — the two closest comparisons to Dortmund — Bayern has allowed 1.29 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

Expand the sample to include all games this season against fellow Champions League sides and bettors will find Bayern are allowing 1.04 npxGOT per 90.

Based on those outputs, take the over in this game so long as it remains priced at -125 or better.