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Sports Betting

Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction, odds: the side we’re betting in Tuesday’s EPL clash

Action Network
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Chelsea's Raheem Sterling, right, and Arsenal's Oleksandr Zinchenko challenge the ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Chelsea and Arsenal at Stamford Bridge Stadium in London, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022.

Chelsea's Raheem Sterling, right, and Arsenal's Oleksandr Zinchenko challenge the ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Chelsea and Arsenal at Stamford Bridge Stadium in London, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022. (Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP)

Two big six sides prepare to face off Tuesday at the Emirates Stadium as we’re set to provide an Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.

Arsenal’s title hopes have taken a hit recently as they now sit behind Manchester City. After Tuesday’s match, Manchester City will still have two games in hand on Arsenal.

For Chelsea, their run of form can only be described as disastrous. The Blues are winless over their past eight in all competitions and have dropped all three points in three straight Premier League matches.

Those trends see Arsenal arrive as a -160 favorite on Tuesday with Chelsea priced at +425 and the draw priced at +300. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -135 to the over.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction & Best Bet

Arsenal Moneyline (-160 | Bet to -175)

Take Arsenal -1 at -110 or better for a lessened price, but either way this is a fantastic buy-low spot on the Gunners.

Although they find themselves going up against a Chelsea side in an even better buy-low position, we’ll trust the home team that looked far superior in the reverse encounter. At Stamford Bridge, Arsenal earned a 1-0 victory, but produced a more dominant performance in the underlying metrics.

Per fotmob.com, manager Mikel Arteta’s side won the expected goals battle 2.25 to 0.29 and the big scoring chances battle 3-0. Expand the sample to include the past two head-to-head EPL meetings between these sides, both at Chelsea, and bettors will find Arsenal owns a 3.49 to 0.97 non-penalty expected goals edge and a 5-0 big scoring chances edge, again per fotmob.com.

Now, Arsenal gets a shot at Chelsea on their home ground, where they’ve proved a far better side this season.

Through 16 domestic home fixtures, Arsenal has a +1.32 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, compared to a +0.37 expected goal differential per 90 minutes away from home.

Take out the home performances against Manchester City and Newcastle United — the only two road sides with a positive xGD/90 minutes Arsenal have faced — and their home expected goal differential per 90 minutes rises to 1.49.

Chelsea have struggled immensely away from home this season. The Blues own a -0.18 expected goal differential per 90 minutes through 15 domestic trips, the eighth-best mark in the league.

In five trips to teams with a current top-eight home xGD per 90 minutes, Chelsea are 0-2-3 (W-D-L) with a -0.3 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. The last time they faced one of those teams came on Feb. 26, so this should be a shock to their system.

For those reasons, take Arsenal to get back on the right track as they end their four-match winless run.