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Sports Betting

AC Milan vs. Napoli prediction, odds: our best bet for a tight Champions League match

Action Network
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AC Milan's Davide Calabria, right, and Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia vie for the ball during the Serie A soccer match between Napoli and AC Milan, in Naples, Italy, Sunday, April 2, 2023.

AC Milan's Davide Calabria, right, and Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia vie for the ball during the Serie A soccer match between Napoli and AC Milan, in Naples, Italy, Sunday, April 2, 2023. (Alessandro Garofalo/AP)

Ahead of Wednesday’s all-Italian UEFA Champions League first leg, we’re here to offer an AC Milan vs. Napoli prediction.

AC Milan, the current Serie A titleholders, dispatched Premier League side Tottenham in the Round of 16 following a tumultuous group stage. Meanwhile, Napoli continued their impressive continental campaign with a 5-0 aggregate drubbing of Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt.

These sides have already completed both head-to-head meetings in Italy this season, with the road team capturing a win in each.

On Wednesday, Napoli is a +170 favorite on the three-way moneyline with AC Milan sitting at +175 and the draw priced at +210. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -160 to the under.

AC Milan vs. Napoli Prediction + Best Bet

AC Milan No Bet — “Tie” (+100)

Some housekeeping notes before we get into the analysis here.

With this market, bets are refunded if AC Milan wins the game outright. Thus, bets are only action if the match a) finishes on level terms or b) sees Napoli produce a decisive road win. Among those two options, under no circumstances should a Napoli win be as high as -140.

This season, AC Milan has proved very difficult to beat at the San Siro. Although Napoli traveled there in September and claimed all three points, they did so as a function of a penalty kick.

Take out that tally for the Naples club and bettors will find Milan finished the match as the superior side. In that first meeting, manager Stefano Pioli’s side won the non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) battle 1.67 to 1.06, per fotmob.com.

From there, it’s worth noting Milan has dropped all three points in only one other home fixture this season. Expand the sample to include their 19 home fixtures last season and bettors will find the Rossoneri have dropped all three points in only five of their last 33 home fixtures.

Take out the 21 home wins from that sample and the “draw” has a 7-5 edge in terms of AC Milan home results over the past two seasons.

On the flip-side, Napoli will be without talisman Victor Osimhen, which unquestionably harms their ability to win this match. Per fbref.com, the current Serie A leaders see their xG per 90 minutes tally drop by 0.53 when Osimhen is off the pitch.

Additionally, they’ve struggled relatively away from home this season when facing top Italian sides. In six trips to Fiorentina, Lazio, Milan, Roma, Atalanta and Inter, Napoli holds a +0.3 npxGOT differential.

Further, Napoli have won only half of those six road fixtures on non-penalty goals. However, Osimhen featured in all but one of those fixtures.

Milan, meanwhile, owns a +0.48 npxGOT differential in six home matches against Inter, Napoli, Juventus, Fiorentina, Roma and Atalanta and have avoided defeat in all six matches on non-penalty goals.

Given those trends, I’d back this prop market so long as the “tie” option remains available at -115 or better.